Why a 2% Inflation Target Might Be Too Low
The path to 2% inflation in the U.S. may not be as direct as markets anticipated only several months ago. Supply and demand fundamentals remain tight for many of the most vital commodities while dramatic rate hikes have already ravaged parts of the world’s financial industry. Despite the resiliency exhibited by equity markets over the last six months, higher debt servicing costs loom and, with it, the very real possibility of recession. For investors, portfolio allocations need to be adjusted now to account for this new paradigm—taking into account the potential for a more protracted battle with inflation in an environment of elevated risk.
- Recap of performance in real asset markets
- Macroeconomic outlook
- Solutions for addressing potential headwinds
Webinar details
September 06, 2023
11:00 AM US ET
Duration 60 MINRelated Topics
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The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker and are current as of the video’s posting date, and are not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees. Video commentaries are general in nature and should not be construed as investment advice. References to specific securities and their issuers or sectors are for illustrative purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data.
An investment in the VanEck Inflation Allocation ETF (RAAX) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in real assets ETPs, which may subject the Fund to commodities, gold, natural resources companies, MLPs, real estate sector, infrastructure, ETP-related equity securities, small- and medium-capitalization companies, foreign securities, emerging market issuers, ETP-related foreign currency, credit, interest rate, call, concentration and derivative risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. The Fund may also be subject to fund of funds, affiliated fund, U.S. Treasury Bills, subsidiary investment, commodity regulatory (with respect to investments in the Subsidiary), tax (with respect to investments in the Subsidiary), cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency tax, liquidity (with respect to commodities instruments), gap, cash transactions, high portfolio turnover, models and data, active management, operational, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, market, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, and non-diversified risks. Foreign investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, and changes in currency exchange rates which may negatively impact the Fund's returns. Small- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
| Average Annual Total Returns* (%) | ||||||||
| Month End as of 07/31/2023 | ||||||||
| 1 MO | 3 MO | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR | 10 YR | LIFE 04/09/18 |
|
| RAAX (NAV) | 5.73 | 4.00 | 6.52 | 6.12 | 14.33 | 4.44 | -- | 4.57 |
| RAAX (Share Price) | 6.03 | 4.33 | 6.85 | 6.22 | 14.46 | 4.40 | -- | 4.59 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 6.26 | 4.32 | -2.02 | -7.88 | 18.02 | 6.47 | -- | 5.60 |
*Returns less than one year are not annualized.
All benchmark indices are unmanaged and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Benchmark indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance may be lower or higher than performance data quoted. Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for performance current to the most recent month ended.
Gross Expense Ratio: 0.99%
An investment in the VanEck Commodity Strategy ETF (PIT) may be subject to risks which include, among others, commodities and commodity-linked instruments and tax, futures contract, U.S. Treasury Bills, subsidiary investment, commodity regulatory, subsidiary tax, gap, cash transactions, liquidity, high portfolio turnover, active management, credit, interest rate, derivatives, counterparty, pooled investment vehicle, repurchase agreements, regulatory, affiliated fund, market, operational, authorized participant concentration, new fund, absence of prior active market, trading issues, fund shares trading, premium/discount, liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, concentration, municipal securities, money market funds, securitized/asset-backed securities, and sovereign bond risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund.
| Average Annual Total Returns* (%) | ||||||||
| Month End as of 07/31/2023 | ||||||||
| 1 MO | 3 MO | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR | 10 YR | LIFE 12/20/22 |
|
| PIT (NAV) | 9.71 | 7.35 | 2.51 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3.77 |
| PIT (Share Price) | 9.74 | 7.46 | 1.35 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3.80 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 6.26 | 4.32 | -2.02 | -7.88 | 18.02 | 6.47 | -- | -1.11 |
*Returns less than one year are not annualized.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance may be lower or higher than performance data quoted. Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for performance current to the most recent month ended.
Gross Expense Ratio: 0.60%
VanEck Funds:
You can lose money by investing in the Funds. Any investment in the VanEck Funds should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. VanEck Funds are subject to various risks, including those unique to foreign investing, non-diversification, industry concentration, emerging markets securities, small-cap companies, and debt securities. Please see the prospectus and summary prospectus of each Fund for information on these and other risks.
VanEck ETFs (equity):
The principal risks of investing in VanEck ETFs include sector, market, economic, political, foreign currency, world event, index tracking, active management, social media analytics, derivatives, blockchain, commodities and non-diversification risks, as well as fluctuations in net asset value and the risks associated with investing in less developed capital markets. The Funds may loan their securities, which may subject them to additional credit and counterparty risk. ETFs that invest in high-yield securities are subject to subject to risks associated with investing in high-yield securities; which include a greater risk of loss of income and principal than funds holding higher-rated securities; concentration risk; credit risk; hedging risk; interest rate risk; and short sale risk. ETFs that invest in companies with small capitalizations are subject to elevated risks, which include, among others, greater volatility, lower trading volume and less liquidity than larger companies. Please see the prospectus of each Fund for more complete information regarding each Fund's specific risks.
VanEck Merk Gold Trust;
The material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Before investing you should carefully consider the VanEck Merk Gold Trust's (the “Trust") investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The prospectus may be obtained via this link: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/merk-gold-trust-etf-ounz/ounz-prospectus.pdf
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The Trust is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for the purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trust are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. Because shares of the Trust are intended to reflect the price of the gold held in the Trust, the market price of the shares is subject to fluctuations similar to those affecting gold prices. Additionally, shares of the Trust are bought and sold at market price, not at net asset value (“NAV”). Brokerage commissions will reduce returns.
The request for redemption of shares for gold is subject to a number of risks including but not limited to the potential for the price of gold to decline during the time between the submission of the request and delivery. Delivery may take a considerable amount of time depending on your location.
Commodities and commodity-index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market movements and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or political and regulatory developments, as well as trading activity of speculators and arbitrageurs in the underlying commodities.
Roll yield is a component of a commodity futures’ total return attributable to a convergence of futures prices and spot prices as futures contracts approach their expiration dates. Roll yield, alone, cannot be used as a direct measure of performance.
Trust shares trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. The value of Trust shares relates directly to the value of the gold held by the Trust (less its expenses), and fluctuations in the price of gold could materially and adversely affect an investment in the shares. The price received upon the sale of the shares, which trade at market price, may be more or less than the value of the gold represented by them. The Trust does not generate any income, and as the Trust regularly issues shares to pay for the Sponsor’s ongoing expenses, the amount of gold represented by each Share will decline over time. Investing involves risk, and you could lose money on an investment in the Trust. For a more complete discussion of the risk factors relative to the Trust, carefully read the prospectus.
The sponsor of the Trust is Merk Investments LLC (the “Sponsor”). Van Eck Securities Corporation provides marketing services to the Trust.
© 2023 Merk Investments LLC. © 2023 VanEck. All trademarks, service marks or registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com/etfs. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
© Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
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The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker and are current as of the video’s posting date, and are not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees. Video commentaries are general in nature and should not be construed as investment advice. References to specific securities and their issuers or sectors are for illustrative purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data.
An investment in the VanEck Inflation Allocation ETF (RAAX) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in real assets ETPs, which may subject the Fund to commodities, gold, natural resources companies, MLPs, real estate sector, infrastructure, ETP-related equity securities, small- and medium-capitalization companies, foreign securities, emerging market issuers, ETP-related foreign currency, credit, interest rate, call, concentration and derivative risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. The Fund may also be subject to fund of funds, affiliated fund, U.S. Treasury Bills, subsidiary investment, commodity regulatory (with respect to investments in the Subsidiary), tax (with respect to investments in the Subsidiary), cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency tax, liquidity (with respect to commodities instruments), gap, cash transactions, high portfolio turnover, models and data, active management, operational, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, market, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, and non-diversified risks. Foreign investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, and changes in currency exchange rates which may negatively impact the Fund's returns. Small- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
| Average Annual Total Returns* (%) | ||||||||
| Month End as of 07/31/2023 | ||||||||
| 1 MO | 3 MO | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR | 10 YR | LIFE 04/09/18 |
|
| RAAX (NAV) | 5.73 | 4.00 | 6.52 | 6.12 | 14.33 | 4.44 | -- | 4.57 |
| RAAX (Share Price) | 6.03 | 4.33 | 6.85 | 6.22 | 14.46 | 4.40 | -- | 4.59 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 6.26 | 4.32 | -2.02 | -7.88 | 18.02 | 6.47 | -- | 5.60 |
*Returns less than one year are not annualized.
All benchmark indices are unmanaged and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Benchmark indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance may be lower or higher than performance data quoted. Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for performance current to the most recent month ended.
Gross Expense Ratio: 0.99%
An investment in the VanEck Commodity Strategy ETF (PIT) may be subject to risks which include, among others, commodities and commodity-linked instruments and tax, futures contract, U.S. Treasury Bills, subsidiary investment, commodity regulatory, subsidiary tax, gap, cash transactions, liquidity, high portfolio turnover, active management, credit, interest rate, derivatives, counterparty, pooled investment vehicle, repurchase agreements, regulatory, affiliated fund, market, operational, authorized participant concentration, new fund, absence of prior active market, trading issues, fund shares trading, premium/discount, liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, concentration, municipal securities, money market funds, securitized/asset-backed securities, and sovereign bond risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund.
| Average Annual Total Returns* (%) | ||||||||
| Month End as of 07/31/2023 | ||||||||
| 1 MO | 3 MO | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR | 10 YR | LIFE 12/20/22 |
|
| PIT (NAV) | 9.71 | 7.35 | 2.51 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3.77 |
| PIT (Share Price) | 9.74 | 7.46 | 1.35 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3.80 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 6.26 | 4.32 | -2.02 | -7.88 | 18.02 | 6.47 | -- | -1.11 |
*Returns less than one year are not annualized.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance may be lower or higher than performance data quoted. Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for performance current to the most recent month ended.
Gross Expense Ratio: 0.60%
VanEck Funds:
You can lose money by investing in the Funds. Any investment in the VanEck Funds should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. VanEck Funds are subject to various risks, including those unique to foreign investing, non-diversification, industry concentration, emerging markets securities, small-cap companies, and debt securities. Please see the prospectus and summary prospectus of each Fund for information on these and other risks.
VanEck ETFs (equity):
The principal risks of investing in VanEck ETFs include sector, market, economic, political, foreign currency, world event, index tracking, active management, social media analytics, derivatives, blockchain, commodities and non-diversification risks, as well as fluctuations in net asset value and the risks associated with investing in less developed capital markets. The Funds may loan their securities, which may subject them to additional credit and counterparty risk. ETFs that invest in high-yield securities are subject to subject to risks associated with investing in high-yield securities; which include a greater risk of loss of income and principal than funds holding higher-rated securities; concentration risk; credit risk; hedging risk; interest rate risk; and short sale risk. ETFs that invest in companies with small capitalizations are subject to elevated risks, which include, among others, greater volatility, lower trading volume and less liquidity than larger companies. Please see the prospectus of each Fund for more complete information regarding each Fund's specific risks.
VanEck Merk Gold Trust;
The material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Before investing you should carefully consider the VanEck Merk Gold Trust's (the “Trust") investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The prospectus may be obtained via this link: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/merk-gold-trust-etf-ounz/ounz-prospectus.pdf
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The Trust is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for the purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trust are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. Because shares of the Trust are intended to reflect the price of the gold held in the Trust, the market price of the shares is subject to fluctuations similar to those affecting gold prices. Additionally, shares of the Trust are bought and sold at market price, not at net asset value (“NAV”). Brokerage commissions will reduce returns.
The request for redemption of shares for gold is subject to a number of risks including but not limited to the potential for the price of gold to decline during the time between the submission of the request and delivery. Delivery may take a considerable amount of time depending on your location.
Commodities and commodity-index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market movements and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or political and regulatory developments, as well as trading activity of speculators and arbitrageurs in the underlying commodities.
Roll yield is a component of a commodity futures’ total return attributable to a convergence of futures prices and spot prices as futures contracts approach their expiration dates. Roll yield, alone, cannot be used as a direct measure of performance.
Trust shares trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. The value of Trust shares relates directly to the value of the gold held by the Trust (less its expenses), and fluctuations in the price of gold could materially and adversely affect an investment in the shares. The price received upon the sale of the shares, which trade at market price, may be more or less than the value of the gold represented by them. The Trust does not generate any income, and as the Trust regularly issues shares to pay for the Sponsor’s ongoing expenses, the amount of gold represented by each Share will decline over time. Investing involves risk, and you could lose money on an investment in the Trust. For a more complete discussion of the risk factors relative to the Trust, carefully read the prospectus.
The sponsor of the Trust is Merk Investments LLC (the “Sponsor”). Van Eck Securities Corporation provides marketing services to the Trust.
© 2023 Merk Investments LLC. © 2023 VanEck. All trademarks, service marks or registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com/etfs. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
© Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.