Gold Miners are Digging In (Despite Your Disinterest)
March 13, 2024
Read Time 5 MIN
Monthly gold market and economic insights from Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, featuring her unique views on mining and gold’s portfolio benefits. An expanded PDF version of this commentary, including fund specific information can be downloaded here.
Little love for gold (and even less for the miners)
Gold was little-changed in February, closing below $2,000 per ounce on February 13 and 14 before moving back and holding above this level for the remainder of the month. Gold eventually settled at $2,044 per ounce on February 29, up 0.23% for the month. U.S. core and headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings for January were above consensus expectations, pushing out the likelihood of a U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut to later in the year and putting pressure on gold by mid-month. Gold later found support to establish an average closing price of $2,029 per ounce so far this year – not too bad, considering that, over the same time period, the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index1) is up 2.8% and gold bullion investment demand (as gauged by holdings in gold-backed ETFs) is down 3.7%.
While gold bullion was seemingly unloved this past month, gold stocks basically had their heart broken. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)2 and the MVIS Global Juniors Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)3 were down 6.10% and 6.84%, respectively, in February, further widening the already significant valuation gap against the metal. The first days of March have brought some relief to gold equity investors, though, with gold mining stocks strongly outperforming gold bullion as gold reaches new all time-highs. This could be the beginning of a reversion-to-the-mean trend that sees gold mining equities once again display their leverage to the gold price and outperform bullion when gold prices are rising. For reference, GDMNTR would have to more than double from current levels to reach its peak of August 2011—so there still appears to be a fair amount of potential runway just based on historical performance.
Gold miners are really digging in
We attended the BMO Global Metals, Mining and Critical Minerals Conference last month. We met with the management of more than 40 gold and precious metal companies. This conference provides an excellent opportunity to take the pulse of the sector, identify trends and themes, and get updates from the individual companies, while potentially discovering new investment ideas. Here are some of our key takeaways:
- Location, location, location — It is no secret that mining companies face many risks related to the regions where they operate. However, it is important (and necessary if you want to invest in the sector) to differentiate between broader jurisdictional risk and risks to mining operations, specifically. We met with companies with projects in regions/jurisdictions considered geopolitically risky – including in countries like Peru, Ecuador, Guyana, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea and Ethiopia – yet with managements seemingly enjoying operational stability within these places. Ivory Coast and Guinea appear to be considered pockets of stability in the complex West African region. West Africa, a challenging jurisdiction due to the geopolitical landscape, continues to be one of the best regions to discover and develop gold resources from an exploration, permitting, labor and capital efficiency point of view. While companies seem more cautious about ongoing changes and developments taking places within countries such as Argentina, Colombia and Mexico, the general outlook with respects to mine operation and investment appears to be optimistic.
- Setting expectations — Companies are well aware of the importance of delivering against announced targets. We communicated the urgent need to develop detailed methodologies that allow companies to do this successfully, given the complexities and many variables involved in projecting production, operating and capital costs for operations and projects. Those companies with advanced and conservative processes for guidance setting should benefit from the significantly higher valuation multiples that come with meeting or beating expectations.
- Refocusing on cost control — Following a wave of inflation that increased operating and capital costs significantly over the past couple of years (mostly outside of the control of the mining companies) there is a renewed focus on implementing cost control and reduction initiatives. Anecdotally, we also heard that Australian labor inflation is easing after 2 years. It appears that inflationary pressures have abated which, combined with companies’ efforts to reduce costs, should keep average costs for the industry contained around current levels.
- Free cash flow abounds — While rising costs of production have pressured margins, at current gold prices companies are generating a lot of cash. For example, one of our mid-tier holdings, with a $1.5 billion market cap, holds in excess of $640 million in cash with zero debt. The company pays a dividend and is trying to make acquisitions to put some cash to work. However, with an operating cash flow of more than $400 million annually, it seems set to continue to build its treasury. This bodes well for dividend seeking investors as companies are committed to establishing sustainable base dividends with potential for bonus or special dividends as free cash flow expands.
- Acquisitions come with challenges — Whether at the asset- or at the company-level, the integration of new projects and operations comes with risks and challenges. Acquiring companies must provide updated strategies, restructuring plans, operating and financial forecasts. This increases risks for these companies and creates uncertainty in the markets. Companies must be able to manage these risks in their pursuit of growth and value creation. Over the long-term, acquisitions will bear fruit for strong management teams. However, in the short-term, these acquisitions can create overhang on their stocks.
The gold mining industry is without a doubt a very challenging business. We spent most of our time at the conference discussing with management their strategies and how they are tackling what we believe are the biggest risks for each company. We are encouraged to see gold mining companies focus their efforts on de-risking their businesses; reducing costs; enhancing shareholder returns; and targeting disciplined growth with the participation, support and for the benefit of host countries and communities in an environmentally responsible and ethical manner.
To receive more Gold Investing insights, sign up in our subscription center.
Related Topics
Related Insights
Related Topics
Related Insights
April 24, 2024
April 10, 2024
February 13, 2024
February 07, 2024
Important Disclosures
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of February 29, 2024, unless otherwise noted.
Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this communication.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1U.S. Dollar Index measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. 2NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 3MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”). VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding VanEck products or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Index”) is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MarketVector Indexes GmbH and MarketVector Indexes GmbH makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in VanEck products.
The S&P 500®Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
ESG investing is qualitative and subjective by nature, and there is no guarantee that the factors utilized by VanEck or any judgment exercised by VanEck will reflect the opinions of any particular investor. Information regarding responsible practices is obtained through voluntary or third-party reporting, which may not be accurate or complete, and VanEck is dependent on such information to evaluate a company’s commitment to, or implementation of, responsible practices. Socially responsible norms differ by region. There is no assurance that the socially responsible investing strategy and techniques employed will be successful.
The Gold Strategy is subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. The strategy’s overall portfolio may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. The strategy investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. The strategy is subject to risks associated with investments in Canadian issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Related Funds
Important Disclosures
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of February 29, 2024, unless otherwise noted.
Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this communication.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1U.S. Dollar Index measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. 2NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 3MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”). VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding VanEck products or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Index”) is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MarketVector Indexes GmbH and MarketVector Indexes GmbH makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in VanEck products.
The S&P 500®Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
ESG investing is qualitative and subjective by nature, and there is no guarantee that the factors utilized by VanEck or any judgment exercised by VanEck will reflect the opinions of any particular investor. Information regarding responsible practices is obtained through voluntary or third-party reporting, which may not be accurate or complete, and VanEck is dependent on such information to evaluate a company’s commitment to, or implementation of, responsible practices. Socially responsible norms differ by region. There is no assurance that the socially responsible investing strategy and techniques employed will be successful.
The Gold Strategy is subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. The strategy’s overall portfolio may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. The strategy investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. The strategy is subject to risks associated with investments in Canadian issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.