Market Rotation Propels Moat Stocks
October 08, 2024
Read Time 6 MIN
In September, U.S. equity markets extended their gains, with the S&P 500 reaching new heights, buoyed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s signal of a more dovish stance on monetary policy. Powell's commitment to sustaining economic health through the start of rate adjustments fueled optimism, overshadowing geopolitical concerns. This environment saw a significant rotation into value stocks, particularly in undervalued sectors, as investors sought balance amid a backdrop of easing monetary policy and a resilient, yet cooling, labor market. September's performance capped a strong quarter, setting a positive tone for market expectations into year-end.
The Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index (the “Moat Index”) finished up 1.8% in September, capping off what was a notably strong third quarter where the Index gained 12.1% compared to the S&P 500’s return of 5.8%. The broadening out of the market, away from the Magnificent 7 and toward more value-oriented areas, provided a strong tailwind during the quarter. Year-to-date, the Moat Index still has some ground to make versus the S&P 500, but falling interest rates and the potential continued rotation away from mega-caps may prove supportive in the final months of the year.
Companies on the smaller end of the market cap spectrum also gained in September, but to a lesser extent. The small- and mid-cap benchmarks were up 0.9% and 1.2% during the month, respectively. The Morningstar U.S. Small-Mid Cap Moat Focus Index (the “SMID Moat Index”) fared better however, benefiting from strong stock selection leading to a 2.3% gain in September. During the quarter, small- and mid-caps bounced with market participants keying in on attractive valuations relative to large-caps and economic conditions that remain stable as we head into the start of a rate cutting cycle.
Moat Stocks Surged in Third Quarter | As of 9/30/2024
Source: Morningstar. As of 9/30/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Fund performance current to the most recent month end is available by visiting vaneck.com or by calling 800.826.2333.
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Moat Index Quarterly Review Highlights: Core Shift and Fresh Faces
Both the Moat and SMID Moat Indexes underwent quarterly reviews on September 20, 2024. Each quarter they systematically target the most attractively priced, high quality U.S. companies within their respective universes. Below are a few takeaways from the reviews and how the indexes are now positioned. Full results of the most recent quarterly reviews are available here: Moat Index and SMID Moat Index.
Additionally, in our moat investing webinar, we provide more information on current positioning and recent performance, and members of Morningstar’s equity research team shared their perspectives on market trends and the companies they cover.
During the September review, the Moat Index saw 14 stock positions change within the portfolio. This reshuffling resulted in a slight shift towards core/blend stocks. Despite the shift toward blend, the Moat Index’s value posture remains in effect as its contrarian nature has led its exposure toward attractively priced companies in more value-oriented areas relative to the S&P 500 Index. Sector wise, the index's composition remained largely stable with industrials, health care, and consumer staples being overweight, while technology remained the most significant underweight.
Although the overweight to value stocks reduced slightly this quarter, several first-time index constituents were added at this quarter’s review reaffirming this value posture. The first timers added this quarter include industrial gas supplier Air Products and Chemicals (ADP), medical imaging leader GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC), and industrial fluidics systems manufacturer Idex Corporation (IEX), among others, each bringing unique competitive advantages that have recently earned them 'wide moat' status from Morningstar. More information on these new entrants, and others, can be found in our recent blog covering the reconstitution in more detail.
Moat Index Sector Shifts Following 3Q 2024 Review | As of 9/20/2024
Source: Morningstar. As of 9/20/2024. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
U.S. Equity Exposure Without the Lofty Valuations
The price/fair value ratio of the S&P 500 Index currently sits at 1.05. This implies that the companies in the S&P 500 are, overall, trading at approximately a 5% premium, according to Morningstar. This presents a challenge for investors looking to deploy cash into U.S. markets that are, again, reaching all-time highs. The Moat Index represents high quality companies currently mispriced by the market, in Morningstar’s view. It allows investors to consider a mix of well-positioned companies with upside potential. Currently, the Morningstar price/fair value ratio of the Moat Index is 0.86, implying a 14% discount to fair value.
SMID Moat Index Highlights: Electrifying Surge in Utilities
The latest quarterly reconstitution of the Morningstar US Small-Mid Cap Moat Focus Index (SMID Moat Index) showcased notable shifts, emphasizing adjustments in sector and size exposure based on evolving market valuations and opportunities. A prominent change was the exit of four electric utilities companies from the index, prompted by a roughly 20% surge in their stock values during the quarter. This rotation out of utilities, which had become the largest industry overweight following the prior June Index review, made room for increased allocations in financials, materials, and health care sectors, all of which saw an uptick this quarter.
Additionally, the reconstitution highlighted a continued trend towards increasing small-cap exposure, which rose by 2.4% this quarter, bringing it to about 34%, a notable increase from the 23% small-cap exposure at the start of the year. This shift signifies a tactical move towards valuation opportunities that are present in the small-cap segment of the market. In terms of style exposure, there was minimal shift; the index continues to maintain an underweight stance on growth stocks, preferring tilts towards value and core stocks.
SMID Moat Index Sector Shifts Following 3Q 2024 Review | As of 9/20/2024
Source: Morningstar. As of 9/20/2024. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Valuation Opportunity within SMID Moats
The weighted average price-to-fair value of the SMID Moat Index fell from 0.88 to 0.83 following the September review, signaling a 17% discount to Morningstar’s fair value estimate. The broad-based Russell 2500 Index featured fairly priced valuations with a weighted average price-to-fair value ratio of slightly over 1.00, as of the same date.
Choose Your Moat Strategy
VanEck’s suite of moat investing strategies is powered by Morningstar’s equity research team, which seeks quality companies trading at attractive valuations. The below ETFs offer access to U.S. moat companies:
VanEck Morningstar Wide ETF (MOAT): companies with a wide moat rating, which means Morningstar believes the company is likely to sustain its competitive advantage for at least the next 20 years.
VanEck Morningstar SMID Moat ETF (SMOT): small and mid-cap moat companies.
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Growth ETF (MGRO): wide moat companies within Morningstar’s growth style category.
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Value ETF (MVAL): wide moat companies within Morningstar’s value style category.
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Important Disclosures
Source for all data unless otherwise noted: Morningstar.
Fair value estimate: the Morningstar analyst's estimate of what a stock is worth. Price/Fair Value: ratio of a stock's trading price to its fair value estimate.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Holdings will vary for the MOAT ETF and its corresponding Index. For a complete list of holdings in the ETF, please click here: MOAT - VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF - Holdings.
Holdings will vary for the SMOT ETF and its corresponding Index. For a complete list of holdings in the ETF, please click here: SMOT - VanEck Morningstar SMID Moat ETF - Holdings.
Holdings will vary for the MVAL ETF and its corresponding Index. For a complete list of holdings in the ETF, please click here: MVAL - VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF - Holdings.
Holdings will vary for the MGRO ETF and its corresponding Index. For a complete list of holdings in the ETF, please click here: MGRO - VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Growth ETF - Holdings.
An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Returns reflect past performance and do not guarantee future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, if any. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. Index returns do not represent Fund returns. The Index does not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, nor does the Index lend securities, and no revenues from securities lending were added to the performance shown.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM and Morningstar® U.S. Small-Mid Cap Moat Focus IndexSM were created and are maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell, or promote the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF or the VanEck Morningstar SMID Moat ETF and bears no liability with respect to the ETFs or any security. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM and Morningstar® U.S. Small-Mid Cap Moat Focus IndexSM are service marks of Morningstar, Inc
The Morningstar® U.S. Broad Value Wide Moat Focus IndexSM and Morningstar® U.S. Broad Growth Wide Moat Focus IndexSM were created and are maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell, or promote the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Value ETF and VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Growth ETF and bears no liability with respect to the Funds or any security. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar® U.S. Broad Value Wide Moat Focus IndexSM and Morningstar® U.S. Broad Growth Wide Moat Focus IndexSM are service marks of Morningstar, Inc.
Effective June 20, 2016, Morningstar implemented several changes to the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index construction rules. Among other changes, the index increased its constituent count from 20 stocks to at least 40 stocks and modified its rebalance and reconstitution methodology. These changes may result in more diversified exposure, lower turnover, and longer holding periods for index constituents than under the rules in effect prior to this date. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Morningstar moat-driven indexes represent various regional exposures and consist of companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages and whose stocks are attractively priced, according to Morningstar.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM Intended to track the overall performance of attractively priced companies with sustainable competitive advantages according to Morningstar's equity research team.
The Morningstar® U.S. Small-Mid Cap Moat Focus IndexSM is intended to track the overall performance of small- and mid-cap companies with sustainable competitive advantages and attractive valuations according to Morningstar's equity research team.
Morningstar® U.S. Broad Value Wide Moat Focus IndexSM: consists of at least 30 U.S. value-oriented companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages, and whose stocks are the most attractively priced, according to Morningstar.
Morningstar® U.S. Broad Growth Wide Moat Focus IndexSM: consists of at least 30 U.S. growth-oriented companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages, and whose stocks are the most attractively priced, according to Morningstar.
The S&P SmallCap 600 Index represents small-cap U.S. companies. The S&P Midcap 400 Index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized U.S. companies. The S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index which is an equally weighted version of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 Index.
The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT®) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, health care sector, industrials sector, information technology sector, financials sector, medium-capitalization companies, market, operational, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversification and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar SMID Moat ETF (SMOT®) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, small- and medium-capitalization companies, consumer discretionary sector, financials sector, health care sector, industrials sector, information technology sector, market, operational, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Small- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Value ETF (MVAL) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, value style investing, financials sector, health care sector, industrials sector, large- and medium-capitalization companies, market, operational, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, new fund, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Large- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund’s value strategy may result in the Fund investing in securities or industry sectors that underperform the market as a whole. Furthermore, the value companies identified by the Index provider may not operate as expected, and there is no guarantee that the index provider’s proprietary valuation model will perform as intended.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Growth ETF (MGRO) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, growth style investing, consumer discretionary sector, industrials sector, financials sector, large- and medium-capitalization companies, health care sector, information technology sector, market, operational, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, new fund, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, and index-related concentration risk, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Large- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund’s growth strategy may result in the Fund investing in securities or industry sectors that underperform the market as a whole. Furthermore, the growth companies identified by the Index provider may not operate as expected, and there is no guarantee that the index provider’s proprietary valuation model will perform as intended.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
© Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Related Funds
Important Disclosures
Source for all data unless otherwise noted: Morningstar.
Fair value estimate: the Morningstar analyst's estimate of what a stock is worth. Price/Fair Value: ratio of a stock's trading price to its fair value estimate.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Holdings will vary for the MOAT ETF and its corresponding Index. For a complete list of holdings in the ETF, please click here: MOAT - VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF - Holdings.
Holdings will vary for the SMOT ETF and its corresponding Index. For a complete list of holdings in the ETF, please click here: SMOT - VanEck Morningstar SMID Moat ETF - Holdings.
Holdings will vary for the MVAL ETF and its corresponding Index. For a complete list of holdings in the ETF, please click here: MVAL - VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF - Holdings.
Holdings will vary for the MGRO ETF and its corresponding Index. For a complete list of holdings in the ETF, please click here: MGRO - VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Growth ETF - Holdings.
An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Returns reflect past performance and do not guarantee future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, if any. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. Index returns do not represent Fund returns. The Index does not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, nor does the Index lend securities, and no revenues from securities lending were added to the performance shown.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM and Morningstar® U.S. Small-Mid Cap Moat Focus IndexSM were created and are maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell, or promote the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF or the VanEck Morningstar SMID Moat ETF and bears no liability with respect to the ETFs or any security. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM and Morningstar® U.S. Small-Mid Cap Moat Focus IndexSM are service marks of Morningstar, Inc
The Morningstar® U.S. Broad Value Wide Moat Focus IndexSM and Morningstar® U.S. Broad Growth Wide Moat Focus IndexSM were created and are maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell, or promote the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Value ETF and VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Growth ETF and bears no liability with respect to the Funds or any security. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar® U.S. Broad Value Wide Moat Focus IndexSM and Morningstar® U.S. Broad Growth Wide Moat Focus IndexSM are service marks of Morningstar, Inc.
Effective June 20, 2016, Morningstar implemented several changes to the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index construction rules. Among other changes, the index increased its constituent count from 20 stocks to at least 40 stocks and modified its rebalance and reconstitution methodology. These changes may result in more diversified exposure, lower turnover, and longer holding periods for index constituents than under the rules in effect prior to this date. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Morningstar moat-driven indexes represent various regional exposures and consist of companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages and whose stocks are attractively priced, according to Morningstar.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM Intended to track the overall performance of attractively priced companies with sustainable competitive advantages according to Morningstar's equity research team.
The Morningstar® U.S. Small-Mid Cap Moat Focus IndexSM is intended to track the overall performance of small- and mid-cap companies with sustainable competitive advantages and attractive valuations according to Morningstar's equity research team.
Morningstar® U.S. Broad Value Wide Moat Focus IndexSM: consists of at least 30 U.S. value-oriented companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages, and whose stocks are the most attractively priced, according to Morningstar.
Morningstar® U.S. Broad Growth Wide Moat Focus IndexSM: consists of at least 30 U.S. growth-oriented companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages, and whose stocks are the most attractively priced, according to Morningstar.
The S&P SmallCap 600 Index represents small-cap U.S. companies. The S&P Midcap 400 Index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized U.S. companies. The S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index which is an equally weighted version of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 Index.
The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT®) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, health care sector, industrials sector, information technology sector, financials sector, medium-capitalization companies, market, operational, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversification and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar SMID Moat ETF (SMOT®) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, small- and medium-capitalization companies, consumer discretionary sector, financials sector, health care sector, industrials sector, information technology sector, market, operational, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Small- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Value ETF (MVAL) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, value style investing, financials sector, health care sector, industrials sector, large- and medium-capitalization companies, market, operational, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, new fund, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Large- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund’s value strategy may result in the Fund investing in securities or industry sectors that underperform the market as a whole. Furthermore, the value companies identified by the Index provider may not operate as expected, and there is no guarantee that the index provider’s proprietary valuation model will perform as intended.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Growth ETF (MGRO) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, growth style investing, consumer discretionary sector, industrials sector, financials sector, large- and medium-capitalization companies, health care sector, information technology sector, market, operational, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, new fund, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, and index-related concentration risk, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Large- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund’s growth strategy may result in the Fund investing in securities or industry sectors that underperform the market as a whole. Furthermore, the growth companies identified by the Index provider may not operate as expected, and there is no guarantee that the index provider’s proprietary valuation model will perform as intended.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
© Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.