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Markets in Motion: Tariffs, Tech and Treasure

March 06, 2025

Read Time 4 MIN

Trump’s tariffs, AI’s next phase, and a potential U.S. gold revaluation could shake markets—investors who stay ahead of these transitions will be best positioned.

The Three Big Ideas Everyone’s Talking About

Over the past few weeks, I’ve been meeting with some of the sharpest investors across the globe. The conversations?

Disruptive ideas, market-moving insights, and scenarios that could shake up portfolios.

Three themes keep coming up, again and again:

  1. Will Trump’s tariffs reshape global trade?
  2. Is tech’s recent pullback a warning sign—or simply the next phase of the AI-driven super-cycle?
  3. Could a U.S. gold revaluation unlock a $750 billion windfall?

These aren’t just theoretical debates. If any of them play out, the impact could be significant. Let’s dig in.

Trump Tariff Plan: A New Trade Playbook?

The U.S. has officially enacted 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, triggering swift retaliation. Canada plans to impose equivalent tariffs on nearly $100 billion of U.S. goods, while Mexico is preparing its own countermeasures.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has also increased tariffs on Chinese imports, layering an additional 10% duty overnight. China responded by targeting U.S. agricultural products, introducing restrictions on American companies, and filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization.

Markets reacted sharply. U.S. equities dropped, gold rallied, and volatility spiked as investors assessed the fallout. Despite initial currency stability in Canada and Mexico, the broader concern is the economic impact. Businesses facing higher costs are expected to pass them to consumers, likely driving up prices on goods such as food and automobiles.

The key question remains: Are these tariffs a short-term pressure tactic or a long-term shift in trade policy? Either way, they are reshaping global supply chains, creating new risks and opportunities for investors.

AI’s Next Phase: Moving Beyond Infrastructure

Tech stocks have pulled back, but this isn’t the end of the AI rally—it’s the natural transition to the next phase of the AI-driven super-cycle.

AI adoption is rolling out in three stages:

  • Phase 1: AI Arms Dealers – The infrastructure builders (chips, cloud, and compute power) fueled the first wave of returns.
  • Phase 2: AI Power Users – Companies embedding AI into their operations, gaining efficiency, automation, and product advantages.
  • Phase 3: AI for Everyone – Mass adoption drives broad-based productivity gains, benefiting companies across all sectors.

We are now transitioning from Phase 1 to Phase 2. AI is moving beyond hardware and into real-world applications, where businesses investing in AI will start separating from those that aren’t. The transition brings new winners, but AI’s role in reshaping the economy remains just as strong.

Gold Revaluation: A Thought Experiment

The idea of a U.S. gold revaluation is making the rounds, though it’s far from a base case. The U.S. Treasury holds 261.5 million ounces of gold but still values them at $42.22 per ounce—a relic from the early 1970s. With gold trading near $2,950 per ounce, that’s a multi-hundred-billion-dollar windfall sitting on the books.

A revaluation would allow the Treasury to boost its balance sheet without printing new money or issuing debt. There’s precedent:

  • 1934 – The Gold Reserve Act: FDR raised gold’s price to strengthen the Treasury’s war chest.
  • 1971 – Nixon Ends the Gold Standard: Cutting dollar convertibility enabled massive monetary expansion.

If it happens, expect:

  • Gold prices to surge in anticipation.
  • A weaker dollar if markets see it as monetary expansion.
  • Big upside for gold miners and hard assets.

Again, this isn’t our base case, but given the debt backdrop, it’s worth watching.

Market Review

Equities: Rotation in Full Swing

The shifts in market leadership are real and accelerating:

  • Tech is adjusting as AI moves into its next phase.
  • Traditional economy sectors—energy, materials, real estate, and healthcare—are seeing inflows.
  • Markets are adjusting to policy-driven headwinds—trade, inflation, and fiscal concerns.

Fixed Income: Volatility Returns Bonds have had a wild ride, and the narrative is shifting fast:

  • The 10-Year Treasury yield dropped from 4.79% to 4.2%, reflecting recession fears.
  • Inflation data came in hotter than expected, forcing a higher-for-longer stance on rates.
  • Now, growth concerns have the market asking for rate cuts. Now is not the time to take excess risk. Credit spreads are tight, but if volatility spikes, they could widen fast.

Real Assets: The Bull Market Marches

The bull market in real assets is alive and well, fueled by:

  • Persistent inflation.
  • Geopolitical chaos.
  • Tighter supply chains. Gold and gold equities are leading the way, followed by commodities, natural resource equities, and REITs.

Digital Assets: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride

Bitcoin hit $107K before falling back below $80K—a classic high-volatility shakeout.

  • Bitcoin is trading like a risk asset, moving with big tech.
  • Will it go lower? Probably.
  • Will we buy more if it does? Absolutely. Timing bottoms is impossible. The real question: If I buy today, will I look smart in 6, 12, or 18 months? We think the answer is yes.

Final Thought

Market risk is elevated, and with rotation underway, this is a time for broad diversification—across asset classes, within asset classes, and with exposure to traditional risk-off assets like Treasuries and gold—not a time for taking outsized risks.

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Important Disclosures

Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.

Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this blog.

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

Consumer Price Index tracks variation in prices paid by typical consumers for retail goods and other items. Bloomberg Commodity Index tracks the price of a variety of physical commodities. It's made up of futures contracts for 24 of the most traded commodities. S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. Russell 2000 Index tracks the small-cap U.S. stock market. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad–based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar–denominated, fixed–rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed–rate and hybrid ARM pass–throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non–agency). MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large and mid cap representation across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

Prior to using any AI tools, please consult your compliance and legal departments to assess and mitigate potential risks associated with its application in your specific regulatory environment.

Please note that any content generated by an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system has not been subject to a human review, and thus no assurance can be made as to its accuracy. Please exercise caution when using AI systems and verify the content produced through such systems wherever possible.

There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.

There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junk bond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. This risk is heightened with investments in longer duration fixed-income securities and during periods when prevailing interest rates are low or negative.

Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.

Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.

Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

© Van Eck Associates Corporation.

Important Disclosures

Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.

Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this blog.

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

Consumer Price Index tracks variation in prices paid by typical consumers for retail goods and other items. Bloomberg Commodity Index tracks the price of a variety of physical commodities. It's made up of futures contracts for 24 of the most traded commodities. S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. Russell 2000 Index tracks the small-cap U.S. stock market. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad–based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar–denominated, fixed–rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed–rate and hybrid ARM pass–throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non–agency). MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large and mid cap representation across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

Prior to using any AI tools, please consult your compliance and legal departments to assess and mitigate potential risks associated with its application in your specific regulatory environment.

Please note that any content generated by an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system has not been subject to a human review, and thus no assurance can be made as to its accuracy. Please exercise caution when using AI systems and verify the content produced through such systems wherever possible.

There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.

There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junk bond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. This risk is heightened with investments in longer duration fixed-income securities and during periods when prevailing interest rates are low or negative.

Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.

Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.

Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

© Van Eck Associates Corporation.