Monthly Market Recap: Post-Election Positioning
November 11, 2024
Read Time 3 MIN
Market Overview: A Tale of Change and Continuity
The American people have spoken, and the result is in: President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance are set to lead the country. The markets cheered the Republican win, buoyed by hopes for tax cuts and deregulation. Tariffs might not thrill everyone, but this outcome lifted the fog of uncertainty. Now, we’re watching to see if this new leadership can bridge a divided nation. Let’s keep sight of the bigger picture. Our main investment theme—financial excess—is intact. When financial conditions are loose, assets with scarce value, like gold, bitcoin, and real estate, tend to outperform. This dynamic remains at the core of our strategy.
Fiscal Policy: A Fork in the Road
Modern American history is hallmarked by overspending, and the outcome of this election is unlikely to change that trajectory. Overspending is not specific to any political party. History shows both parties have a penchant for spending:
U.S. Total Public Debt Across Presidential Terms over the Last 20 Years
Source: Bloomberg as of 2024.
The critical debate now concerns fiscal policy. Option one is austerity, which involves trimming debt and banking on economic growth fueled by innovations like AI. This is a hopeful scenario, but it may take longer to unfold. Option two? Fiscal dominance, where the government’s debt demands push the central bank to prioritize keeping rates low, regardless of inflation risks. The likely near-term scenario is “business as usual”: over-borrow to overspend, just with red-leaning policies. The prudent move? Hope for growth but prepare for fiscal dominance—diversify with gold, bitcoin, and other real assets.
Equities: A Challenging Month
Stocks took a hit in October, facing rising geopolitical tensions, election jitters, and strong economic growth data. We seem to be in an awkward economic paradox where good news is bad and bad news is good because of the implications for future rate policies.
The month favored large-cap over small-cap, growth over value, and U.S. over international equities:
| Index | October Return (%) |
| S&P 500 | -0.91 |
| Russell 3000 Value | -1.20 |
| Russell 3000 Growth | -0.73 |
| Russell 2000 | -1.44 |
| MSCI EAFE | -5.44 |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | -4.45 |
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Fixed Income: A Strong Job Market, Rising Rates
Strong employment and consumer spending cast doubt on Fed rate cuts, sending bond prices down during the period. As demand for these bonds waned, yields climbed, pushing up borrowing costs across the board. A robust labor market turned expectations of rate cuts into a reality of rising interest costs.
Real Assets: Gold Gains, Oil Lags
Gold glistened in October, driven higher by the same factors that drove equities lower. Classic investor behavior is to buy top-performing assets. Gold is now that asset, and flows into gold ETFs are rising. Global physically backed gold ETFs have been experiencing inflows for the past six months and raised $4.3 billion in October. In our view, this trend is just beginning and will push gold prices significantly higher over the medium term.
Meanwhile, oil couldn’t catch a break. At the same time, Middle East tensions briefly boosted prices, weak demand from China, and ample supply kept WTI below $70 per barrel—a classic case of the 'safe-haven' effect favoring gold. In contrast, oil struggled due to economic forces.
Digital Assets: Bitcoin’s Moonshot
Bitcoin hit a historic high, soaring above $76,000 after the election results were announced. Trump’s pro-crypto stance is fueling optimism, which could attract more institutional players and enhance bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. Trump’s tax-cutting agenda only fuels Bitcoin’s rise as a digital store of value.
Bottom Line
Our advice: balance hope and preparation. The landscape may change, but the need for diversification doesn’t. In a world of fiscal excess and political shifts, gold, bitcoin, and other real assets remain smart hedges in a volatile landscape.
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Important Disclosures
Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this blog.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Russell 3000 Value Index consists of value-oriented U.S. companies selected from the large-cap focused Russell 3000 Index. Russell 3000 Growth Index consists of growth-oriented U.S. companies selected from the large-cap focused Russell 3000 Index. S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index is an equally weighted version of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 Index. Nasdaq 100 Index comprises equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Russell 2000 Index tracks the small-cap U.S. stock market. MSCI International Developed Markets Index measures the performance of equity markets across developed countries. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.
There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junk bond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. This risk is heightened with investments in longer duration fixed-income securities and during periods when prevailing interest rates are low or negative.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets,can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation
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Important Disclosures
Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this blog.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Russell 3000 Value Index consists of value-oriented U.S. companies selected from the large-cap focused Russell 3000 Index. Russell 3000 Growth Index consists of growth-oriented U.S. companies selected from the large-cap focused Russell 3000 Index. S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index is an equally weighted version of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 Index. Nasdaq 100 Index comprises equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Russell 2000 Index tracks the small-cap U.S. stock market. MSCI International Developed Markets Index measures the performance of equity markets across developed countries. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.
There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junk bond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. This risk is heightened with investments in longer duration fixed-income securities and during periods when prevailing interest rates are low or negative.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets,can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation