Glimmer of Hope for Gold’s Rebound
November 09, 2022
Read Time 9 MIN
Monthly gold market and economic insights from Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist, and Imaru Casanova, Deputy Portfolio Manager, featuring their unique views on mining and gold’s portfolio benefits. An expanded PDF version of this commentary, including fund specific information can be downloaded here.
Support signs for gold
While interest rates trended higher and 10-year treasury yields rose above 4% for the first time since 2008, the dollar was unable to make new highs in October. Markets started wondering if rates are reaching a peak, allowing gold prices to stabilize above $1,600 per ounce. Gold reached a monthly high of $1,729 on October 4 amid jitters over Credit Suisse’s finances and continued fallout from UK property funds affected by the Liability Driven Investment (LDI) crisis. Gold then trended lower to end the month with a $27.05 (1.63%) loss at $1,633.56.
Historically, physical demand for gold picks up in Asia and the Middle East when the gold price is weak. The current low gold price is no exception, as buyers in China, India, and UAE sense a bargain. According to Bloomberg, gold in Dubai, Istanbul and Shanghai is trading at a premium to spot prices in London. Over 527 tonnes has been moved out of New York and London vaults since April, while Chinese imports reached a four-year high in August. Central Bank demand is also strong, as the World Gold Council reports the banks bought 399 tonnes in the third quarter, the strongest quarter on record. This physical demand may enable gold to find a floor around current levels.
Miners move the needle on “green”
Gold stocks eked out small gains in October, with the NYSE Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)1 advancing 0.9% and the MVIS Global Junior Gold Index (MVGDXJTR)2 increasing 0.8%. There was some interesting news on the miners’ efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Most mines run diesel equipment to load and haul rock. Underground gold mines use trucks that haul up to 65 tonnes, while open pit trucks can haul up to 300 tonnes. This is often a company’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, making the development of non-diesel equipment the key to a green mining industry. Australian Mining writes that mining manufacturer Sandvik will begin testing the largest battery electric truck for underground mining at the Sunrise Dam gold mine in Western Australia in December, with hopes of bringing it to market in 2023. Inadequate charging time and battery life have been the main impediments to adopting underground electric haul trucks. Hopefully this truck will meet the miners’ needs.
On the open pit front, Bloomberg reports members of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) plan to begin testing hydrogen and other zero-emission technologies at 50 sites by year-end. The CEO of ICMM expects mass availability of hydrogen and electric trucks in 2027, compared with an earlier projection of 2040.
Wars, inflation and recession: risks are still rising
Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. In its 2023 index of U.S. Military Strength, the Heritage Foundation downgraded the U.S. military from marginal to weak, citing shrinking shipbuilding, maintenance delays and backlogs, aging aircraft, pilot shortages, very poor pilot training, low munitions inventories and a lack of recruits. The U.S. is spending about 3% of GDP on defense, compared to 5%-6% in the 1980’s. Meanwhile, China reiterated its intentions to become a major military power and unify Taiwan Region at its Communist Party Congress.
Several recent measures indicate macro risks are also growing. Both CPI3 and PPI4 inflation were again ahead of expectations. The CPI was up 8.5% YOY in September. A study by Deutsche Bank using 126 observations around the globe since 1970 shows that when inflation exceeds 8%, it has always remained above 2% (U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) target) for at least four years.
In a recent Wall Street Journal article the IMF Managing Director said “a global recession is very possible”. Economists, on average, put the probability of a U.S. recession in the next twelve months at 63%, up from 49% in July.
Debt may be the most overlooked danger
Two areas of risk that we believe are being ignored in the markets are debt and international currencies. Last month we mentioned that higher rates are setting U.S. debt service on a path to become the largest item in the federal budget. Natalia Gurushina, VanEck’s Chief Economist for Emerging Markets Fixed Income, provides two charts that illustrate that the problem is not limited to the U.S. The first chart shows many countries around the world have been piling on more debt, led by the two largest, the U.S. and China. The second chart indicates that, as existing debt is rolled into higher rates, debt service is set to consume a much larger portion of global GDP. The April 2021 estimate of 2026 G7 interest payments shows that few (if any) have anticipated this increase in debt service. Debt risks will likely rise as economies succumb to tighter central bank policies.
Piling on the debt: Primary fiscal balances as a % of GDP
Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor. Data as of October 2022.
Bills, bills, bills: Interest payments as % of GDP
Source: VanEck Research, IMF Fiscal Monitor. Data as of October 2022.
Historic mismatch in local gold prices
On the currency front, many have been tracking the dizzying rise in the dollar and the relentless declines in many other currencies around the globe. The chart below looks at gold prices in local currencies. The gray line is gold in U.S. dollars, while the teal and blue lines are gold in pound sterling and yen respectively. Gold in local currencies periodically outperforms or underperforms, but historically all three plots tend to move in tandem. The rectangle highlights the remarkable divergence recently between gold in U.S. dollars and the other two currencies. If fact, we looked at this chart back to 1972 and there has never been such a divergence. These are not rogue nations run by a despotic dictator, they are G7 countries with major reserve currencies. These currency dislocations reflect the extraordinary risks faced by the world today. While the U.S. has problems with inflation, debt, divisive politics, crime and a weakening military, other countries have problems that outweigh those in the U.S., allowing gold to trend higher as a local safe haven. How much longer can the U.S. be relatively insulated from the crises that increasingly afflict the rest of the world?
Mind the gap: Gold returns in dollar, yen and pound terms
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of October 2022.
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Important Disclosures
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of October 31, 2022 unless otherwise noted.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 2MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver. 3Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in the price for goods and services paid by urban consumers between any two time periods. It can also represent the buying habits of urban consumers. 4Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by VanEck ETF Trust (the “Trust”) in connection with VanEck Gold Miners ETF (the “Fund”). Neither the Trust nor the Fund is sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding the Trust or the Fund or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Index”) is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (the “Fund”) is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MarketVector Indexes GmbH and MarketVector Indexes GmbH makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in the Fund.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
The Gold strategy is subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. The strategy’s overall portfolio may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. The strategy investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. The strategy is subject to risks associated with investments in Canadian issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for a free prospectus and summary prospectus. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the investment company carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
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© 2022 VanEck. VanEck®, VanEck Access the opportunities®, and the stylized VanEck design® are trademarks of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Related Funds
Important Disclosures
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of October 31, 2022 unless otherwise noted.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 2MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver. 3Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in the price for goods and services paid by urban consumers between any two time periods. It can also represent the buying habits of urban consumers. 4Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by VanEck ETF Trust (the “Trust”) in connection with VanEck Gold Miners ETF (the “Fund”). Neither the Trust nor the Fund is sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding the Trust or the Fund or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Index”) is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (the “Fund”) is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MarketVector Indexes GmbH and MarketVector Indexes GmbH makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in the Fund.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
The Gold strategy is subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. The strategy’s overall portfolio may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. The strategy investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. The strategy is subject to risks associated with investments in Canadian issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for a free prospectus and summary prospectus. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the investment company carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
666 Third Avenue | New York, NY 10017
© 2022 VanEck. VanEck®, VanEck Access the opportunities®, and the stylized VanEck design® are trademarks of Van Eck Associates Corporation.