Miners’ Margins Grow as Gold Soars to Fresh Highs
August 09, 2024
Read Time 4 MIN
Monthly gold market and economic insights from Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, featuring her unique views on mining and gold’s portfolio benefits.
Miners’ Margins Grow as Gold Soars to Fresh Highs
Another month, another high!
Gold reached intra-day highs of $2,431 in April; $2,450 in May; and $2,483 per ounce in July. Gold’s rally this year has been impressive. The sideways price action that we were expecting, following such a strong start to the year, has occurred at a much higher level than we would have predicted.
Gold has averaged around $2,358 per ounce since its April peak
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of July 31, 2024.
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Key drivers: heightened geopolitical risk and market rotation
In July, gold continued to be supported by heightened global geopolitical risk as the U.S. elections took an unexpected turn, and tensions worsened in the Middle East. Gold's strength in July coincided with a 1.60% decline in the Nasdaq 100 Index1, reflecting a broader pullback in equity markets driven by powerful technology stocks. “Rotation” was a hot word in financial markets in July – it is fair to assume that gold would benefit from such a rotation into safer, cheaper, or more defensive assets. Investment demand, as gauged by the holdings of gold bullion backed ETFs, picked up in July, with net inflows resulting in a 1.8% increase in holdings during the month.
Also…rate cuts
Last, but not least, lower-than-expected June U.S. Consumer Price Index2 readings seem to have convinced markets that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut rates, supporting gold. At the end of July, three 25 basis point cuts were priced in for 2024, compared to two cuts priced in at the end of June. Lower real interest rates have historically been positive for gold. The performance of gold in the year or so following the start of the last three rate cutting cycles supports this view (chart below). Gold closed on July 31 at $2,447.60 per ounce, up $120.85 or 5.19% during the month.
Historically, gold has performed well following the Fed’s first rate cuts
Source: JPMorgan, VanEck. Data as of July 31, 2024.
Miners are starting to shine
Gold stocks showed their gold price leverage in July. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)3 and the MVIS Global Juniors Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)4 were up 10.91% and 8.38%, respectively, amply outperforming bullion. For the gold miners, these record gold prices mean record margins. With costs contained, their free cash flow generation expanded significantly in Q2 (see table below).
Healthy margins for miners these days—despite higher costs
| AISC ($) | Gold Price (Avg., $/oz) | Implied Margin ($) | |
| 10-Year Average (thru Q4 2023) | 1,053 | 1,497 | 444 |
| 5-Year Average (thru Q4 2023) | 1,156 | 1,747 | 591 |
| Q1 2024 | 1,429 | 2,072 | 643 |
| Q2 2024 | 1,428 | 2,338 | 910 |
Source: Scotiabank, VanEck. Data as of June 30, 2024.
Gold companies have been reporting their financial and operating results for Q2 2024. We track a universe of companies during the earnings season to assess how they deliver against expectations, and thus far, the updates appear to be a net positive for the sector with about 80% of results beating or meeting consensus estimates. This is encouraging, and we continue to stress how critical it is that these companies consistently meet their targets. Achieving this should lead to higher valuations that are supported not only by high free cash flow yields during periods of record gold prices, but also by the markets’ conviction that these companies are solid, sustainable and profitable businesses, able to offer positive returns throughout the commodity cycles.
Demand could still be a major catalyst
As of end-July, gold and gold stocks were among the top performing assets so far this year. While gold has reached new highs, gold stocks remain well below their historic peaks. Even a slight increase in global capital allocations to gold and gold mining stocks could have a material impact on the price of gold and gold equities, given that the sector represents a very small percentage (approximately 1%*) of global financial assets. Similarly, despite very robust purchasing of gold in recent years, as a group, central banks of emerging economies remain relatively underinvested in gold, with indications that they are looking to increase their percentage of total reserves held in gold. If both investors and central banks’ sentiment towards gold and gold equities continues to improve from here, the additional demand could have a significant positive impact on the gold price and the valuations of gold stocks.
China/EM central banks have been big buyers…but could be bigger…
Source: Goldman Sachs, World Gold Council. Data as of June 30, 2024.
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Important Disclosures
* Gold Market Primer: Market size and structure - World Gold Council.
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of July 31, 2024, unless otherwise noted.
Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this communication.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1Nasdaq 100 Index is a stock market index made up of equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. 2Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change overtime in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. 3NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 4MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”). VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding VanEck products or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Index”) is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MarketVector Indexes GmbH and MarketVector Indexes GmbH makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in VanEck products.
The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Related Funds
Important Disclosures
* Gold Market Primer: Market size and structure - World Gold Council.
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of July 31, 2024, unless otherwise noted.
Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this communication.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1Nasdaq 100 Index is a stock market index made up of equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. 2Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change overtime in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. 3NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 4MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”). VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding VanEck products or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Index”) is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MarketVector Indexes GmbH and MarketVector Indexes GmbH makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in VanEck products.
The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.