Gold Outlook: Visual Analysis of Price and Market Trends
November 06, 2024
Read Time 2 MIN
Gold and gold stocks have been among the strongest performing asset classes thus far this year, even outperforming US stocks. Gold stands well-positioned to continue its upward trajectory, with appeal for investors seeking both a safe haven and potential growth. A range of macroeconomic factors have aligned to set the stage for continued gold strength:
- Geopolitical tensions: Rising global conflicts have heightened market risks, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
- Expected rate cuts: Anticipated interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 could weaken the dollar, bolstering demand for gold.
- Persistent inflation: Sticky inflation and concerns over a potential “second wave” sustain the value of gold as a hedge.
- Strong central bank demand: Central banks, especially in emerging markets, continue to build gold reserves.
- Robust physical demand from Asia: Demand for physical gold (including bars, coins and jewelry) in Asia contributes to price stability.
- Resurgent Western investment: Renewed interest from Western investors could be a catalyst for gold’s near-term growth.
In our gold chart book, we explore the impact these factors have had on gold and gold stocks, as well as how they shape our outlook for this asset class.
Key Takeaways:
- Gold and gold stocks are on pace to be among the top-performing assets in 2024.
- Gold’s price momentum, trading at higher ranges, fuels speculation about its potential to reach $3,000 per ounce.
- Historically, gold has gained following Fed rate cuts, with cumulative returns averaging 25% over 500 trading days in the last three rate-cut cycles.
- Though China’s central bank purchases have recently slowed, China has been instrumental in driving recent price increases, and its actions remain a significant factor.
- Major emerging markets, including Russia, India and China, continue to bolster gold reserves, reflecting a possible shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar.
- Central bank gold purchases in 2022 and 2023 have reached levels unseen since 1963, underscoring gold’s role in national reserves.
- Investment demand is showing signs of revival as ETF inflows track higher, a trend that could support continued price strength.
Explore our full chart book on gold here: Gold Outlook: Visual Analysis of Price and Market Trends.
To receive more Gold Investing insights, sign up in our subscription center.
Follow Us
Related Topics
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Please note that VanEck may offer investment products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this blog.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Related Funds
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Please note that VanEck may offer investment products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this blog.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.