Fallen Angel Yields at Post-COVID highs; Major Rising Star Expected

Fallen angels (as represented by the ICE US Fallen Angel High Yield 10% Constrained Index, “H0CF”) outperformed the broad high yield market (as represented by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, “H0A0”) by 0.26% in October (-0.98% vs -1.24%) primarily due to spread movements, as lower rated issuers saw greater spread widening than higher quality bonds. Yields continued moving upwards amid continued strong U.S. economic growth and concerns around fiscal spending and U.S. debt issuance, with the 10Y finishing the month at 4.88%. In early November, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the target range for the Fed Funds at 5.25% to 5.50% for the second time in a row, potentially indicating that the current hiking may be over but leaving their options open if needed, as the economy grew at strong pace during Q3.

In terms of flows, high yield U.S. listed corporate ETFs saw approximately $5.4bn in outflows in October, bringing the 3-months net outflows to approximately $8bn. Treasury ETFs continued to see large inflows with $21.1bn this past month; ultrashort funds continued to see the most inflows, but there were some inflows into intermediate and long duration products, as well. With the Fed keeping rates unchanged, there is potential for the mid/long end of the curve to continue picking up more inflows, although investors betting on declining long-term yields did not fare well over the past six months.

Recap of Large Rising Stars: Occidental Petroleum and Ford

This year we have seen a boost in rising stars ($34,250m in market value), most of which were downgraded in 2020. The two largest rising stars have been Occidental Petroleum and Ford, which is expected to be removed from the index next month.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY):

• Downgraded April 2020 as part of the energy downgrade due to the sharp drop in oil prices; entered the index with a price of $71.76, adding $25,844 of par.
• Upgraded May 2023 with improvement in credit metrics, stemming from the combination of incremental de-leveraging, along with anticipated improvements in earnings in the chemicals and midstream segments, and exiting the index with a price of $93.82, removing $9,975 of par.
• During its time in the index, OXY provided a cumulative total return of approximately 43% and price return of approximately 23%, vs the fallen angel index total return of approximately 1% and price return of approximately 19%.

Ford:

• Downgraded April 2020 as operations in most regions were shut down; entered the index with a price of $85.87, adding $21,520 of par.
• Upgraded the last day of October, which, due to the selection of underlying constituents for month end rebalance being three business days before the last day of the month, is expected to be removed from the fallen angel index on November 30, 2023.
• As of October 31, 2023, Ford’s price was $89.95, par $8,106m, providing a cumulative total return of approximately 24% and price return of approximately 5% since index entry vs the fallen angel index total return of approximately 20% and price return of approximately -1%.

Source: ICE Data Services, VanEck.

Fallen Angels Overall Statistics: Fallen angel yields increased by 32bps to 8.34%, surpassing by 1bp the elevated level seen at the end of March 2020, however, spreads were 447bps higher than they are currently (327 vs 774). Broad HY saw an increase in yield of 27bps, from 8.94 to 9.48. Broad HY spreads widened 10% while fallen angels only widened by 4%, which was the main contributor to fallen angel outperformance this past month. Fallen angel market value decreased despite no fallen angels, rising stars or defaults, as six issues were removed due to their maturity being less than 12 months away. Broad HY did see two issuers default in October (Rite Aid and Akumin, with par amount of $2,019m), totaling thirteen issuers that have defaulted so far this year with par amount of $15,391m. Ride Aid and Akumin were not part of the fallen angel index, resulting in Bed Bath & Beyond being the only issuer in the fallen angel index that has defaulted so far this year.

Source: ICE Data Services, VanEck. Fallen Angels: ICE US Fallen Angel High Yield 10% Constrained Index. Broad HY: ICE BofA US High Yield Index. OAS refers to “option-adjusted spread.” Please see definition for this and other terms referenced herein in the disclosures and definitions portion of this blog. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest in an index.

New Fallen Angels: None in October.

Source: ICE Data Services, VanEck. Fallen Angels: ICE US Fallen Angel High Yield 10% Constrained Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names/securities mentioned herein. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest in an index.

Rising Stars: None in October.

Source: ICE Data Services, VanEck. Fallen Angels: ICE US Fallen Angel High Yield 10% Constrained Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names/securities mentioned herein. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest in an index.

Fallen Angels Performance by Sector: Only the Retail sector posted a positive return for October (+0.39%) but it was not enough to offset the negative performance of the other sixteen sectors, despite having the sixth largest exposure in the fallen angel index. There were only small changes to sector exposure with the lack of fallen angels and rising stars, however, the Transportation and Real Estate sectors saw a decrease of more than 1% due to some relatively large issues from Delta and Service Properties Trust being removed from the index due to their maturity being less than 12 months away. The continuous volatility on the long part of the curve keeps driving bond prices lower. The fallen angel index now has 16% in the $70s (up from 9% last month), 76% in the $80s (up from 66%) and just 8% (down from 25%) in the $90s, allowing for a potential higher price appreciation if rates decrease.

Source: ICE Data Services, VanEck. Fallen Angels: ICE US Fallen Angel High Yield 10% Constrained Index. Not intended as a recommendation to invest or divest in any of the sectors mentioned herein. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest in an index.

Fallen Angels Performance by Rating: Higher quality outperformed in October, aside from the CC- rated bucket and one issuer (Diversified Healthcare Trust). October marks the second month so far this year where higher quality (BB-rated bucket within the fallen angel index) outperformed. The CCC bucket has outperformed over 5 months while Single-B has done so over 3 months to date.

Source: ICE Data Services, VanEck. Fallen Angels: ICE US Fallen Angel High Yield 10% Constrained Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest in an index.