Mid-Year Review: VanEck’s 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024
09 July 2024
Read Time 10+ MIN
Please note that VanEck may have a position(s) in the digital asset(s) described below.
Scoreboard check! We've hit the mid-year mark of 2024, and it's time to tally up our top 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024 that we outlined at the end of last year. Spoiler alert: our home-field referee awarded us 95 out of 150 possible points.
From bitcoin’s price hitting all-time highs to Solana’s continued rise, our predictions have been put to the test. Let’s break down the play-by-play of where we nailed it and where we missed the mark. Join us as we review the key developments and trends shaping the crypto market this year so far.
1. U.S. Recession and First Bitcoin ETPs
2. A Smooth Bitcoin Halving
3. Bitcoin’s All-Time High in Q4
4. Ethereum Won’t Flip Bitcoin in 2024
5. Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) Dominance
6. NFT Activity Rebounds
7. Binance Loses Top Spot
8. Stablecoin Market Cap Growth
9. DEX Market Share Increase
10. Bitcoin Yield Opportunities
11. Breakout Blockchain Game
12. Solana’s Continued Rise
13. Adoption of DePin Networks
14. New Corporate Crypto Accounting
15. KYC and DeFi Reconciliation
1. The U.S. Recession and the First Spot Bitcoin ETPs
Prediction: The U.S. would enter a recession in the first half of 2024, and the first spot bitcoin ETPs would launch with significant inflows, keeping Bitcoin above $30k.
Review: Although there are clear signs of economic slowing, with GDP slowing to a 1.3% annualized growth rate, the U.S. has not officially entered a recession. Key indicators like consumer spending and corporate earnings have shown resilience, mitigating the impacts of inflation and supply chain issues. However, the U.S. yield curve has been inverted for more than 700 days, the longest such streak in bond market history, often a precursor to recession. Jobless claims and corporate bankruptcy filings have also risen.
As for the spot bitcoin ETPs, the approval and launch of the first spot bitcoin ETPs on 11 January 2024, was a significant milestone. The ETPs saw overwhelming demand, with inflows surpassing $2 billion in the first month alone. This influx of investment played a crucial role in driving bitcoin to an all-time high of $73,000 in March and maintaining its price above $30k throughout the year. The success of these ETPs has provided a new, regulated avenue for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, significantly boosting its market appeal and stability.
Rating: 7/10
U.S. Yield Curve Now Inverted for Record Length
Source: Bloomberg as of 24/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
Bitcoin Price 2010 – Present
Source: Glassnode as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
2. Bitcoin Halving
Prediction: The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 would proceed without major issues, and post-halving, bitcoin would rise above $48k.
Review: The Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 occurred without any significant disruptions, demonstrating the network’s stability and robustness. This halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoin is introduced into circulation. Contrary to expectations of a brief consolidation period post-halving, bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $73,000 in March, well ahead of the halving. This early rally was likely fueled by the anticipation of the halving and the massive inflows from newly launched bitcoin ETPs. Bitcoin’s price remains strong at $67,500, far surpassing the $48k target we had set post-halving.
Rating: 10/10
Bitcoin Price Pre- and Post-Halving (April 2024 - June 2024)
Source: Glassnode as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
Bitcoin Hashrate 2009 – Present
Source: Glassnode as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
3. Bitcoin’s All-Time High in Q4
Prediction: Bitcoin will reach an all-time high in Q4 2024, driven by political changes and regulatory optimism.
Review: Bitcoin’s price soared to a new all-time high of $73,000 in March 2024, much earlier than our Q4 prediction. This surge was driven by the approval and subsequent success of the spot bitcoin ETPs in January, which attracted significant investment and heightened market confidence. The early achievement of this milestone was facilitated by positive regulatory developments and growing institutional interest. Although this prediction came to fruition ahead of schedule, the factors we predicted to drive the new high—regulatory progress and market optimism—were spot-on. The current price of $67,500 reflects the sustained interest and confidence in Bitcoin as a leading digital asset.
Rating: 9/10
Historical Bitcoin Price Movements Around Major Regulatory Changes
Source: Glassnode as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
4. Ethereum Won’t Flip Bitcoin in 2024
Prediction: Ethereum would not surpass Bitcoin in market cap but outperform mega-cap tech stocks.
Review: Ethereum remains well behind Bitcoin in market capitalization, particularly in light of Bitcoin’s record-breaking performance this year. Despite this, Ethereum has had a strong year, outpacing many of the largest tech stocks in terms of growth and market performance. Its ecosystem continues to expand, driven by advancements like the EIP-4844 upgrade and the growing adoption of Layer 2 solutions. Despite not surpassing Bitcoin, Ethereum’s resilience and robust growth align well with our prediction of its strong market performance relative to major tech stocks.
Rating: 10/10
Ether Returns vs. Major Tech Stocks
Source: Morningstar as of 21/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
Price Ratio Comparison - Bitcoin vs. Ether
Source: Glassnode as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
5. Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) Dominance
Prediction: Post EIP-4844, Ethereum Layer 2 solutions would capture the majority of EVM-compatible TVL and volume.
Review: While the rollout of EIP-4844 has significantly boosted the adoption of Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, we are still waiting to see L2s attract more TVL or DEX activity than Ethereum. However, while Ethereum TVL share vs. L2s is roughly where it was at the beginning of 2024, DEX Volumes are slowly transitioning to L2s. This is mainly because Ethereum has made a dedicated data layer for L2s to post data. This moved activity from Ethereum’s transaction layer, freeing up block space and making transactions on Ethereum less expensive. While L2s cost substantially less than Ethereum to use, often 100x cheaper, many participants still choose to pay higher Ethereum fees. This may be due to the stickiness of Ethereum TVL, the broader range of trading venues, and the large supply of tradeable assets.
Within L2s, the consolidation of market share among the leading solutions is evident, with Base and Arbitrum seizing the majority (~80) of DEX Volume and TVL (>50%). The consolidation amongst L2s demonstrates the power of composability and network effect.
Rating: 3/10
Total Value Locked (TVL) In DeFi on Ethereum
Source: Glassnode as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
DEX Volumes are Moving to Base and Arbitrum
Source: Artemis.xyz as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
Ethereum DEX Volumes Still Exceeds L2 DEX Volumes
Source: Artemis.xyz as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
Ethereum Share of TVL is Roughly Where it Began in 2024
Source: Artemis.xyz as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
6. NFT Activity Rebounds
Prediction: The NFT market experienced a resurgence in the first half of 2024 compared to the latter half of 2023, predominantly on Ethereum, which remains the leader in NFT activity. New high-profile collections and ongoing interest have driven trading volumes upward, although these volumes are still far from the all-time highs seen in 2021. An exciting development has been the introduction of NFTs on the Bitcoin network through the Ordinals protocol, adding a new dimension to the market and attracting a fresh wave of investors and collectors. Despite this positive trend, the overall NFT volume far from its previous peaks. Instead, some of the speculative trading volume has shifted towards meme coins, which have supplanted NFTs in attracting speculative investors
Rating: 3/10
Monthly NFT Trading Volumes (Ethereum vs. Bitcoin)
Source: Artemis.xyz and cryptoslam! as of 24/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
7. Binance Loses Top Spot
Prediction: Binance would lose its position as the top spot trading exchange.
Review: Despite regulatory scrutiny and increasing competition, Binance has retained its position as the leading centralized exchange by trading volume in 2024. However, its dominance is being challenged by competitors like OKX, Bybit, and Coinbase, which have gained market share. Binance's deep liquidity and extensive user base support its leadership, but the narrowing gap with its rivals suggests a more competitive landscape. Although Binance has yet to lose its top spot and still holds over half of all spot volumes, the intensifying competition highlights the changing dynamics in the centralized exchange market.
Rating: 6/10
Binance Share of Spot Volume is Down Slightly
Source: Artemis.xyz as of 15/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
Source: Coinmarketcap as of 15/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
8. Stablecoin Market Cap Growth
Prediction: The stablecoin market cap would reach a new all-time high, with USDC surpassing USDT in market share.
Review: The stablecoin market has continued to grow in 2024, but it has yet to achieve the $200 billion milestone. USDC has been gaining ground, particularly among institutional users, due to its reputation for regulatory compliance. However, USDT remains the dominant stablecoin, primarily because of its entrenched position on Tron, which accounts for ~50% of USDT supply and widespread usage in trading. The dynamics between USDC and USDT show a trend toward increasing competition, with USDC closing the gap but not yet overtaking USDT. The stablecoin market’s growth and evolving competitive landscape reflects our prediction, though the shift in dominance is still developing.
Rating: 6/10
USDT, USDC, and Total Stablecoin Market Cap
Source: Glassnode as of 23/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
9. DEX Market Share Increase
Prediction: Decentralized exchanges (DEXes) would capture a larger share of the spot trading market.
Review: Decentralized exchanges have continued to grow in market share throughout 2024. The improved user interfaces, lower fees, and enhanced liquidity offered by DEXes have attracted more traders. High-throughput blockchains and Layer 2 solutions have further facilitated this growth by providing faster and cheaper transactions. The ongoing trend towards self-custody and decentralized finance (DeFi) supports this shift, with DEXes capturing an increasingly significant portion of the spot trading market. This aligns well with our prediction and underscores the evolving preference for decentralized trading platforms.
Rating: 7/10
DEXes Are Taking Market Share From CEXes
Source: Artemis.xyz as of 15/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
10. Bitcoin Yield Opportunities
Prediction: Remittances and smart contract platforms would create new yield opportunities for Bitcoin.
Review: Bitcoin’s role in remittances has expanded in 2024, particularly in regions with high remittance flows and limited access to traditional financial services. Platforms leveraging Bitcoin and Layer 2 solutions like the Lightning Network have made transactions faster and cheaper. Additionally, yield opportunities for Bitcoin holders have emerged through staking and lending protocols that offer returns on bitcoin assets. These developments align well with our prediction, as they enhance Bitcoin’s utility beyond mere transactions and provide new ways for holders to earn yields. However, the full potential of these opportunities is still unfolding, with ongoing adoption and innovation.
Rating: 4/10
11. Breakout Blockchain Game
Prediction: A blockchain game would surpass 1 million daily active users.
Review: While several blockchain games have seen significant user engagement in 2024, none have consistently reached the 1 million daily active users milestone. High-quality titles like Illuvium and Guild of Guardians have attracted large communities but are still building their user bases. The integration of blockchain technology in gaming continues to evolve, with improvements in-game mechanics and user experience driving growth. Despite not hitting the 1 million user mark, these developments suggest a strong foundation for future success in the blockchain gaming sector. The potential for a breakout hit remains promising as the market matures.
Rating: 5/10
12. Solana’s Continued Rise
Prediction: Solana would become a top 3 blockchain by market cap, TVL, and active users and join the ETPs wars.
Review: Solana will continue to grow and strengthen its position in the blockchain ecosystem in 2024. It ranks highly in market capitalization, total value locked (TVL), and active users, though it has not yet cracked the top 3 in all these categories. Solana’s ecosystem has attracted a wide range of projects and users, contributing to its strong market presence. However, solana-based ETPs have not yet emerged, contrary to our expectations. Despite this, Solana’s ongoing growth and innovation highlight its significant impact and potential in blockchain.
Rating: 7/10
Solana’s Fees Have Increased 56x Over the Last Year
Source: Coinmarketcap as of 15/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
13. Adoption of DePin Networks
Prediction: Decentralized physical infrastructure networks like Hivemapper and Helium would see significant adoption.
Review: Decentralized physical infrastructure (DePin) networks such as Hivemapper and Helium have made notable progress in 2024. Hivemapper has expanded its mapping capabilities, and Helium has increased its subscriber base for its decentralized wireless network. These networks use blockchain technology to create community-driven services, offering an alternative to traditional centralized systems. While adoption has grown, these platforms are still in the early stages of capturing significant market share from established giants like Google and traditional telecom providers. The potential for disruptive growth remains, but widespread adoption is yet to be fully realized.
Rating: 7/10
Growth Metrics of Hivemapper and Helium Networks
Source: Artemis.xyz as of 13/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
Source: Hivemapper as of 15/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
14. New Corporate Crypto Accounting
Prediction: New FASB guidelines would rejuvenate corporate crypto holdings, and Coinbase would break out L2 revenues.
Review: The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) guidelines allowing corporates to report mark-to-market gains on crypto assets are set to take effect in 2025, with anticipation building throughout 2024. Some non-crypto companies have already added BTC to their treasuries, and these include US publicly traded health tech company Semler Scientific ($40M), wealth and payments business Mogo ($5M), Japanese hotel services company Metaplanet ($7.2M). But wide-scale adoption has yet to occur. Within crypto, Defi Technologies recently added $7.5M in BTC to its treasury. However, the adoption of BTC by a greater treasury has yet to materialize.
Coinbase, while advancing its Layer 2 (L2) solutions like Base Protocol, has not reported L2-specific revenues in its filings and instead tucks it under the broader category of “Subscriptions and Services.”. The corporate adoption of crypto assets is increasing, with more firms exploring blockchain applications and digital asset holdings. Our prediction points towards future developments that are still on the horizon, with current trends suggesting growing interest and preparation for these changes.
Rating: 5/10
Corporate Holdings of Crypto Assets
Source: BitcoinTreasuries.net as of 15/06/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.
15. KYC and DeFi Reconciliation
Prediction: KYC-enabled DeFi applications would gain significant traction.
Review: The integration of Know Your Customer (KYC) features into decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms has begun to take shape in 2024. Leading protocols like Uniswap have started experimenting with KYC-enabled functionalities to attract institutional liquidity and comply with regulatory requirements. These developments are bridging the gap between traditional finance and DeFi, making it easier for institutions to engage in decentralized ecosystems. While adopting KYC features is still early, it has generated significant interest and could transform how DeFi operates. The traction gained so far supports our prediction, although widespread adoption is still forthcoming.
Rating: 6/10
Conclusion
Our mid-year review shows that while some predictions have materialized as expected, others are still unfolding or have missed the mark. Bitcoin’s unprecedented rally and the successful launch of spot bitcoin ETPs have been standout developments. We will continue to track these trends and incorporate the above data into future updates. Stay tuned!
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Coin Definitions
- Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
- Ethereum (ETH) is a decentralized, open-source blockchain with smart contract functionality. Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the platform. Amongst cryptocurrencies, Ether is second only to Bitcoin in market capitalization.
- Arbitrum (ARB) is a rollup chain designed to improve the scalability of Ethereum. It achieves this by bundling multiple transactions into a single transaction, thereby reducing the load on the Ethereum network.
- Optimism (OP) is a layer-two blockchain on top of Ethereum. Optimism benefits from the security of the Ethereum mainnet and helps scale the Ethereum ecosystem by using optimistic rollups.
- Polygon (MATIC) is the first well-structured, easy-to-use platform for Ethereum scaling and infrastructure development. Its core component is Polygon SDK, a modular, flexible framework that supports building multiple types of applications.
- Solana (SOL) is a public blockchain platform. It is open-source and decentralized, with consensus achieved using proof of stake and proof of history. Its internal cryptocurrency is SOL.
- Curve (CRV) is a decentralized exchange optimized for low slippage swaps between stablecoins or similar assets that peg to the same value.
- Lido DAO (LDO) is a liquid staking solution for Ethereum and other proof of stake chains.
- Aave (AAVE) is an open-source and non-custodial protocol to earn interest on deposits and borrow assets with a variable or stable interest rate.
- ApeCoin (APE) is a governance and utility token that grants its holders access to the ApeCoin DAO, a decentralized community of Web3 builders.
- Decentraland (MANA) is building a decentralized, blockchain-based virtual world for users to create, experience and monetize content and applications.
- The Sandbox (SAND) is a virtual world where players can build, own, and monetize their gaming experiences using non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and $SAND, the platform’s utility token.
- Binance Coin (BNB) is digital asset native to the Binance blockchain and launched by the Binance online exchange.
- Fantom (FTM) is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) smart contract platform providing decentralized finance (DeFi) services to developers using its own bespoke consensus algorithm.
- Stacks (STX) provides software for internet ownership, which includes infrastructure and developer tools to power a computing network and ecosystem for decentralized applications (dApps).
- Tron (TRX) is a multi-purpose smart contract platform that enables the creation and deployment of decentralized applications.
- Cosmos (ATOM) is a cryptocurrency that powers an ecosystem of blockchains designed to scale and interoperate with each other. The team aims to "create an Internet of Blockchains, a network of blockchains able to communicate with each other in a decentralized way." Cosmos is a proof-of-stake chain. ATOM holders can stake their tokens in order to maintain the network and receive more ATOM as a reward.
- Avalanche (AVAX) is an open-source platform for launching decentralized finance applications and enterprise blockchain deployments in one interoperable, scalable ecosystem.
- Maker (MKR) is the governance token of the MakerDAO and Maker Protocol — respectively a decentralized organization and a software platform, both based on the Ethereum blockchain — that allows users to issue and manage the DAI stablecoin.
- Osmosis (OSMO) is an automated market-making protocol (AMM) that specializes in the Interchain DeFi movement and is built on its own blockchain, utilizing the Cosmos SDK and IBC technologies. Osmosis is an advanced protocol focused on customizable AMMs, where users can create, construct, design and deploy individual and highly-customized AMMs with various modules and the on-chain governance system.
- Sui (SUI) is a first-of-its-kind Layer 1 blockchain and smart contract platform designed from the bottom up to make digital asset ownership fast, private, secure, and accessible.
- Polkadot (DOT) is a sharded heterogeneous multi-chain architecture which enables external networks as well as customized layer one “parachains” to communicate, creating an interconnected internet of blockchains.
- NEAR Protocol (NEAR) is a layer-one blockchain that was designed as a community-run cloud computing platform and that eliminates some of the limitations that have been bogging competing blockchains, such as low transaction speeds, low throughput and poor interoperability.
- Linea is a network that scales the experience of Ethereum with out-of-the-box compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine which enables the deployment of already existing applications.
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