Resumen mensual del mercado: Posicionamiento después de las elecciones

Panorama del mercado: Una historia de cambio y continuidad

El pueblo estadounidense se ha expresado y el resultado está claro: El presidente electo Donald Trump y el vicepresidente electo J.D. Vance se disponen a liderar el país. Los mercados aplaudieron la victoria republicana, animados por las esperanzas de recortes fiscales y desregulación. Puede que los aranceles no entusiasmen a todo el mundo, pero este resultado disipó la niebla de la incertidumbre. Ahora, estamos atentos para ver si este nuevo liderazgo puede unificar a una nación dividida. No perdamos de vista el panorama general. Nuestro principal tema de inversión (exceso financiero) está intacto. Cuando las condiciones financieras son flexibles, los activos con valor escaso, como el oro, el bitcoin y los bienes inmuebles, tienden a obtener mejores resultados. Esta dinámica sigue siendo el núcleo de nuestra estrategia.

Política fiscal: Una bifurcación en el camino

La historia moderna de Estados Unidos se caracteriza por el gasto excesivo, y es poco probable que el resultado de estas elecciones cambie esa trayectoria. El gasto excesivo no es específico de ningún partido político. La historia demuestra que ambos partidos tienen predilección por el gasto:

Deuda pública total de EE.UU. a lo largo de los mandatos presidenciales de los últimos 20 años

Source: Bloomberg as of 2024.

The critical debate now concerns fiscal policy. Option one is austerity, which involves trimming debt and banking on economic growth fueled by innovations like AI. This is a hopeful scenario, but it may take longer to unfold. Option two? Fiscal dominance, where the government’s debt demands push the central bank to prioritize keeping rates low, regardless of inflation risks. The likely near-term scenario is “business as usual”: over-borrow to overspend, just with red-leaning policies. The prudent move? Hope for growth but prepare for fiscal dominance—diversify with gold, bitcoin, and other real assets.

Equities: A Challenging Month

Stocks took a hit in October, facing rising geopolitical tensions, election jitters, and strong economic growth data. We seem to be in an awkward economic paradox where good news is bad and bad news is good because of the implications for future rate policies.

The month favored large-cap over small-cap, growth over value, and U.S. over international equities:

Fixed Income: A Strong Job Market, Rising Rates

Strong employment and consumer spending cast doubt on Fed rate cuts, sending bond prices down during the period. As demand for these bonds waned, yields climbed, pushing up borrowing costs across the board. A robust labor market turned expectations of rate cuts into a reality of rising interest costs.

Real Assets: Gold Gains, Oil Lags

Gold glistened in October, driven higher by the same factors that drove equities lower. Classic investor behavior is to buy top-performing assets. Gold is now that asset, and flows into gold ETFs are rising. Global physically backed gold ETFs have been experiencing inflows for the past six months and raised $4.3 billion in October. In our view, this trend is just beginning and will push gold prices significantly higher over the medium term.

Meanwhile, oil couldn’t catch a break. At the same time, Middle East tensions briefly boosted prices, weak demand from China, and ample supply kept WTI below $70 per barrel—a classic case of the 'safe-haven' effect favoring gold. In contrast, oil struggled due to economic forces.

Digital Assets: Bitcoin’s Moonshot

Bitcoin hit a historic high, soaring above $76,000 after the election results were announced. Trump’s pro-crypto stance is fueling optimism, which could attract more institutional players and enhance bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. Trump’s tax-cutting agenda only fuels Bitcoin’s rise as a digital store of value.

Bottom Line

Our advice: balance hope and preparation. The landscape may change, but the need for diversification doesn’t. In a world of fiscal excess and political shifts, gold, bitcoin, and other real assets remain smart hedges in a volatile landscape.