Monthly Market Recap: Hold My Beer; The World Just Flipped (Again)
20 February 2025
Read Time 4 MIN
Some asked if a monthly commentary could stay interesting. My answer? At this rate, I could write a daily letter and still be redrafting it as the next shockwave hits. Trump, Musk, AI (artificial intelligence), and global chaos have ensured that the world never stops moving.
DeepSeek: China’s AI “Sputnik Moment” Just Happened
The media called DeepSeek-V2 China’s “Sputnik Moment” for AI. Dramatic? Maybe. Accurate? Absolutely.
While Western AI labs spend billions on energy-hungry supercomputers, China’s DeepSeek-V2 just developed a GPT-4-level model that’s leaner, faster, and fully open-source—all while running on Nvidia chips that China supposedly couldn’t get.
This isn’t just about catching up—it’s about rewriting the AI arms race. The real shock? Efficiency is the new nuclear weapon. If China can push AI further with fewer resources, U.S. tech dominance isn’t as secure as it seems.
Inflation: Still Here, Still a Problem
Inflation isn’t going anywhere. We’re in an extended period of above-target inflation—think years, not months.
The January CPI came in hot: +0.5% vs. the expected +0.3 %. That’s direct confirmation that inflation is still burning. The Fed cut rates by 100 bps in late 2024, and now prices are rising again— a surprise.
Consumer-Price Index, Change from a Year Earlier
Source: Labor Department as of January 2025.
Now, the independence of the Fed is in focus because Trump wants lower rates.
“I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately.” — Trump, January 2025
Powell is focused on fighting inflation and will hold his ground—for now. But his term ends in May 2026, and that’s when things get interesting.
This isn’t new. Politicians forcing central banks into bad decisions never ends well:
- Nixon pressured the Fed in 1972 → won reelection → runaway inflation.
- Erdoğan strong-armed Turkey’s central bank → lira collapsed; inflation exploded.
- Argentina printed money to fund spending → hyperinflation, default, disaster.
When politicians mess with central banks, markets pay the price.
Gold is Laughing at Everyone
One asset class hedge against inflation, government overspending, and currency devaluation. Yet, few investors own it.
It’s gold.
In the past 12 months alone, gold has nearly doubled the S&P's returns.
Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 1, 2, and 3 years
Source: State Street Global Advisors and Bloomberg as of 2/12/2025. This chart is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or to sell any of the securities mentioned herein.
At $2,900/oz, people are asking when gold will break $3,000. My reaction? Who cares. Talk to me when it hits $5,000.
2025 Investment Themes: Nothing Changes, Everything Changes
So, what does all this mean for investors?
- AI is more powerful and accessible than ever.
- Inflation isn’t going away—government spending ensures that.
- Energy demand will keep rising, no matter how efficient AI gets.
The playbook stays the same—own equities, real assets, and digital assets. The world is changing fast, but the right investments don’t.
Asset Class Breakdown
Equities
- Nvidia suffered its worst single-day loss ever. China’s DeepSeek trained a top-tier model for $5.58M using just 2,000 Nvidia GPUs, a fraction of what U.S. firms spend.
- Investors panicked. Nvidia dropped 17%, wiping out $589B in market value.
- That said, Big Tech (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) is still investing billions in AI, so Nvidia’s long-term story isn’t over yet.
Fixed Income
- Rates are rising again. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8%, dropped to 4.5%, and is now climbing back up after the latest CPI report.
- Credit markets remain calm—BBB corporate spreads over Treasuries are at just 1.08%.
Real Assets
- Real assets are winning in 2025 because:
- Governments won’t stop spending
- The world won’t stop breaking (geopolitical risk)
- AI won’t stop devouring resources
- As of February 12:
- Gold is up +10.65%
- Bloomberg Commodity Index is up +7.38%
- Global Natural Resources stocks are outperforming
Digital Assets
- Bitcoin is range-bound at ~$100K. Fed policy and regulation limit upside, while government spending and institutional adoption provide a strong floor.
- BTC is maturing into a macro asset—less wild speculation, more tied to liquidity cycles and real adoption.
Final Thought: Own the Future
The world is changing fast, but the playbook stays the same. AI is here, inflation is sticky, energy demand is rising, and governments won’t stop spending.
The right moves? Stay long growth equities, real assets, and digital assets.
Bet on the future—or get left behind.
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Important Disclosures
Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
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This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Consumer Price Index tracks variation in prices paid by typical consumers for retail goods and other items. Bloomberg Commodity Index tracks the price of a variety of physical commodities. It's made up of futures contracts for 24 of the most traded commodities. S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. Russell 2000 Index tracks the small-cap U.S. stock market. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad–based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar–denominated, fixed–rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed–rate and hybrid ARM pass–throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non–agency). MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large and mid cap representation across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
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There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.
There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junk bond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. This risk is heightened with investments in longer duration fixed-income securities and during periods when prevailing interest rates are low or negative.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
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