A Tipping Point for Bonds and Crypto?
16 November 2023
Just a few weeks ago, former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi warned that the EU would fall into recession by the end of this year. “It’s almost sure we’re going to have a recession by year end [in Europe]… It’s quite clear that the first two quarters of next year will show that,” he told a conference hosted by the Financial Times newspaper.
At the same time, the UK was reported to already probably be in a recession after soaring interest rates and rising unemployment turned households more cautious about spending, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics.
I highlight this because bad news for the economy is often good for parts of financial markets. Indeed, the first week of November was notable for rallies in bond markets and crypto assets, triggered by speculation that central banks were finally defeating stubbornly high inflation, paving the way for them to cut interest rates.
Nervous that markets were getting ahead of themselves, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey weighed in with cautionary words, saying it was “much too early to be thinking about rate cuts.” Even so, perceptions are changing and traders are thinking ahead to when rates will be cut from their current high levels.
Why does this matter? Because for bond markets and cryptocurrencies, a turning point for interest rates would be likely to spark a long lasting rally in prices.
Changing sentiment can already be seen. For instance, the VanEck iBoxx EUR Corporates UCITS ETF that tracks the largest and most liquid euro-denominated corporate bonds, rose by around 1.8% between 19th October and 7th November (the day before I wrote this column).
That tells a tale of two risk profiles. The bond ETF is considered to be relatively low risk, only giving exposure to corporate bonds with an investment-grade rating. As interest rates fall, bonds’ yields fall as well, and as the yields go down the prices go up. However, other associated risks, like credit risk, must be considered before investing.
The higher a bond's credit rating, the more sensitive it generally is to changes in interest rates. This interest rate sensitivity is measured by duration which is the weighted average time it takes for the price of a bond to be recovered with the cash flows that the bond generates. Companies with a higher credit rating generally have lower yields. This means it takes longer to earn back the price of the bond and hence a higher credit rating means a higher duration. A bond with a higher credit rating is therefore more sensitive to interest rate changes than a bond with a lower credit rating.
Of course, crypto currencies are well known for their volatility and their prices lit up at the first whisper of a turning point for interest rates. We have seen in the past that decreasing rates create more room for investing in crypto currencies. But there’s something else happening here, as speculation mounts that the US regulator, the Securities & Exchange Commission, might soon approve bitcoin ETFs. When combined with the EU’s new MiCA crypto regulation that’s due to come into effect in 2024, there’s considerable excitement that cryptocurrencies are finally moving into the mainstream.
Of course, there can be no certainty that interest rates in the EU, UK or US will definitely fall in 2024. It’s true that core inflation is coming down but plenty of people remember the harsh lessons of the 1970s and 1980s when it suddenly rose again. If you do believe that high inflation is beaten, though, you could consider an investment in bonds, perhaps backed by a little exposure to cryptocurrencies.
1 Past performance is not guarantee of future results.
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Important Disclosure
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS and to the KID before making any final investment decisions.
This information originates from VanEck (Europe) GmbH, which has been appointed as distributor of VanEck products in Europe by the Management Company VanEck Asset Management B.V., incorporated under Dutch law and registered with the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). VanEck (Europe) GmbH with registered address at Kreuznacher Str. 30, 60486 Frankfurt, Germany, is a financial services provider regulated by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority in Germany (BaFin).
The information is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice VanEck (Europe) GmbH, VanEck Switzerland AG, VanEck Securities UK Limited and their associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this information. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) but not necessarily those of VanEck. Opinions are current as of the publication date and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results. Information provided by third party sources is believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. Brokerage or transaction fees may apply.
All performance information is based on historical data and does not predict future returns. Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal.
No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
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