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![Eric Fine](/globalassets/home/corp/our-firm/investment-professionals/eric-fine.jpg)
My name is Eric Fine and I'm the portfolio manager for the active emerging market bond funds.
EM Bond Developments in Q1 2024
The two big developments in the first quarter of 2024 were: Number one by far, the repricing of Fed rate cuts. The market was pricing in six cuts the beginning of the year and it's pricing now or early in the second quarter pricing in two. That's a big change. 10 years sold off 60 basis points. That's one big thing.
The other big thing that happened is geopolitics. Not so much the situation in Ukraine changed but the understanding of the situation in Ukraine changed, at least in the US, and of course the Middle East wars escalated. That got oil from 72 to 86.
So those were the two big events. Interestingly, this is a good test for our thesis that EM is more resilient in these sorts of environments, but those were the two big events.
The Impact to Investors in the Short-term and Longer term
The short-term impact's actually pretty interesting. The oldest and most defensive part of emerging market bonds rallied. They were up 2%, even though dollar -denominated treasuries sold off by 60 basis points. So that's really interesting.
A category of EM bonds, dollar denominated bonds, rallied when dollar denominated US treasuries sold off. Totally consistent with our thesis that low debt levels in EM matter. Spreads just compressed as treasury yields rose. So that's one big takeaway, very consistent with our view that you want to be safe in bonds in this sort of an environment, you want to have EM bonds.
The other interesting thing, and this is somewhat predictable, is EM local currency sold off. It was down 3%. Why? Because it always does during periods of high volatility. That to us is an opportunity. And in fact, we increased our exposure to some of the higher yielding Latin currencies.
The important thing to know though, when I said that EM local currency sold off by 3%, which local? It was Thailand, it was Korea, the low yielding Asians that should have sold off and that we've reduced exposure to. Which ones rallied? Colombia, Mexico, Peru, exporters that are benefiting from this rise in commodity prices. Like I said, our thesis has always been EM over DM because EM has lower debt, it pays you more for it, and it benefits from a lot of these headlines that for most of your asset prices are negative. And for EM bonds, especially the exporters, if you're positioned right, you're winners.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
You can lose money by investing in the VanEck Emerging Market Bond Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. The Fund is subject to risks which may include, but are not limited to, risks associated with active management, credit, credit-linked notes, currency management strategies, derivatives, emerging market issuers, energy sector, ESG investing strategy, foreign currency, foreign securities, hedging, high portfolio turnover, high yield securities, interest rate, LIBOR replacement, market, non-diversified, operational, restricted securities, investing in other funds, sovereign bond, and special risk considerations of investing in Latin American issuers, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Emerging market issuers and foreign securities may be subject to securities markets, political and economic, investment and repatriation restrictions, different rules and regulations, less publicly available financial information, foreign currency and exchange rates, operational and settlement, and corporate and securities laws risks. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity, interest rate, and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
© 2024 Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation
666 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
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