UNCONVENTIONAL OIL & GAS
SHAWN REYNOLDS, CO-PORTFOLIO MANAGER: I think it's important to understand initially what conventional oil and gas is. When you think about a conventional reservoir, you have to think of a very finite and discrete container. There are several elements that make up a conventional reservoir and lead to the accumulation of oil and gas. First, you need to have a source rock—this is where all the organic material is contained, heated up and pressurized over time, which creates the oil and gas; that migrates into a reservoir rock, which is a permeable and porous medium, usually a sandstone or a limestone. Then, on top of that reservoir rock, you need to have a cap or a seal—something that's impermeable. Then all that needs to be contained into a trap. Of course all of this needs to be laid down and migrated in a certain time sequence so it all comes together. This results in very limited areal extent in terms of the reservoir.
When we think about unconventional, we think about the organic material, the hydrocarbons that are embedded in that source rock. That source rock tends to be a shale—impermeable, nonporous rock—and tends to be very areal. How do you release those hydrocarbon molecules, be it natural gas or petroleum? You apply some of these new technologies we've all been hearing about: massive hydraulic fracturing and extended-reach horizontal drilling. You access this impermeable and nonporous shale that is very rich in hydrocarbons by fracturing it, and you gain a lot of access to it via the horizontal drilling. That releases an economic volume of the oil or natural gas, and now you have a new, unconventional play.
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
We've seen a very important impact to overall natural gas production in this country and in North America due to these unconventional resource plays. To put it in context, in 2004/2005, when we really started to get some momentum and impetus behind some of these resource plays, we produced around 18 trillion cubic feet of gas per year in the United States. That number in 2011 was approximately 23 TCF. You're talking about a very significant improvement in natural gas. That's within the context of relatively flat production for over a decade; now you see a very strong 25 - 30% increase. Looking back at 2004/2005, it was not unusual to see $10 per MCF for natural gas. Today, we're looking at something more in the low $2 range.
I believe that, in terms of natural gas, the unconventional story is still in the early or maybe if you want to be less optimistic, middle innings. There's a lot more to come. Many of the resource plays that we've identified already—Haynesville, Marcellus, Barnett—we are still in very early stages of tapping these resources, let alone all the unconventional plays that we've yet to identify on the natural gas side.
THE OIL SIDE OF THE STORY
One of the really interesting things about unconventional energy is the opportunity for the industry to now move into oil plays. It's very exciting for the industry and it's becoming very profitable. They are opening up these vast new areas that have been untapped for a number of decades. Companies that can access the technology (and most of them can right now) and use geology (i.e. old time prospecting) can go after it.
Within the North American E&P (exploration and production) sector, one can observe natural gas companies moving in a big migration towards liquids and oil right now. Virtually every E&P company is pursuing liquids and oil.
UNCONVENTIONAL GOING GLOBAL?
There's no doubt that unconventional is going global. It's happening a bit slower than what we've seen in terms of technology advances here in the United States. But undoubtedly, it's happening globally.
It's gaining a little bit of momentum. You're actually seeing some larger companies expand production globally. Exxon, in its most recent quarterly results, is talking about drilling in Argentina. In fact, we are seeing a lot of activity in places like Australia and Poland, and even in China. A few years ago, there was no discussion at all about shale gas in China, and now it's very much part of China’s focus, particularly among some national oil companies.
THE IMPACT OF LOWER GAS PRICES
We are seeing this migration and evolution into unconventional oil resource plays, and there is a gas component to that. In fact, you can even argue that a lot of the gas that is being produced today is coming from the associated part of the oil stream. What we’re seeing is almost a waste product, that's how natural gas is being treated. That's one of the reasons why we see this strong supply response and also why we see weak prices. A lot of these combined wells have oil, natural gas liquids, as well as dry gas in them. They're still very, very economic, even though the natural gas itself is getting a weak price. We don't see that slowing down dramatically anytime soon. As long as we continue to have oil prices at these levels (somewhere between $80 and $100), we would expect to see a fair amount of natural gas being produced.
ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES
There's no doubt that fracking and the environmental issues around it are very important and very obvious right now. I think the industry has done a very good job of self-regulating. That doesn't mean that we're not going to see more regulations on the state as well as the federal side. That’s probably not a bad idea. One thing to be clear, though, I think the idea of banning fracking is really ridiculous, and it's really not on the table. However, in terms of regulating at the surface, where there's a lot of handling of fluids and water—it’s natural to think that there needs to be some regulations. But that's something that the industry can easily handle. It's just like any other industrial activity, it will be regulated, and it will probably be a good thing.
E&P VERSUS CONVENTIONAL
The difference between a traditional, conventional E&P play, and an unconventional resource play is that with the traditional resource there is a very finite, constrained container. And when you're drilling for it, you either find it, or you don't; you either have a discovery, or you have a dry hole. You have geologic risk. In unconventional resource plays, your geologic risk is virtually nil. You know there's hydrocarbons down there. What you don't know is if you can drill it cheaply enough to make it economical. With an investment in an E&P play that may be conventional and unconventional, you're taking on some geologic risk and operating risk. As an investor, you have to ask yourself if you want to invest in a company that's taking on geologic risk—as well as commercial risk, geopolitical risk, and weather risk—or do you want to invest in another company that has one of the biggest risk components removed (i.e. geologic risk) but has the rest of the issues as well. It depends on your risk tolerance. In theory, the conventional company’s successes should offset their dry holes. But that's a different risk profile than a purely unconventional play.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
The views and opinions expressed are those of Van Eck Global and are current as of February 2012. Fund manager commentaries are general in nature and should not be construed as investment advice. Opinions are subject to change with market conditions. All performance information is historical and is not a guarantee of future results. Investments returns and the principal value of a fund will fluctuate with market conditions. You may have more or less than the original amount invested when you sell. For more information about Van Eck Funds or fund performance, visit vaneck.com. Any discussion of specific securities mentioned in the commentaries is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities. Fund holdings will vary. All indexes mentioned are measures of common market sectors and performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The vaneck website provides more information on holdings, performance and indexes.
You can lose money by investing in the Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. The Fund is subject to risks associated with concentrating its investments in hard assets and the hard assets sector, including real estate, precious metals and natural resources, and can be significantly affected by events relating to these industries, including international political and economic developments, inflation, and other factors. The Fund’s portfolio securities may experience substantial price fluctuations as a result of these factors, and may move independently of the trends of industrialized companies. The Fund’s investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, including the takeover of property without adequate compensation or imposition of prohibitive taxation. The Fund is subject to risks associated with investments in debt securities, derivatives, commodity-linked instruments, illiquid securities, asset-backed securities and CMOs. The Fund is also subject to inflation risk, short-sales risk, market risk, non-diversification risk, leverage risk, credit risk and counterparty risk. Please see the prospectus and summary prospectus for information on these and other risk considerations.
Investments in the unconventional oil and gas sector are exposed to certain risks which include, among others, volatility of energy prices, exploration and production spending, operating hazards, limited production history, royalty interests, liens and other burdens, third party pipeline availability and capacity, and an evolving regulatory environment. Additionally, the Fund is subject to changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations and other risks inherent to international investing. Investors should be willing to accept a high degree of volatility and the potential of significant loss. The Fund may loan its securities, which may subject it to additional credit and counterparty risk. See the Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus for more complete information regarding investment risks.
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